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Another resilient session for the ASX, at the index level at least, with large cap, index heavy names continuing to find flows, though there was plenty of weakness across certain sectors, resources being an area that remained under pressure.
Wednesday saw the ASX200 close down 0.1% after rotating in another tight 0.4% range as the market remains in its “Middle East Conflict” holding pattern. The losers slightly beat the winners, with only two stocks moving by over 5%, illustrating the lacklustre nature of the day. At the sector level, weakness in the resources sector more than offset gains in tech, which we will examine later today
The ASX bounced between positive and negative territory today amid a sharp sell-off in materials after iron ore hit a 9-month low but ultimately closed toward its lows of the days narrow ~30pt trading range.
We are making several changes across Market Matters Portfolios today
The ASX200 slipped 0.1% on Tuesday as uncertainty around the Middle East increased following some confusing and contradictory comments from President Trump et al, leading to a ~0.6% slide by the US S&P 500 futures, surrendering most of Monday’s advance in the process.
The ASX came off the boil as the day progressed, tracking lower into the close, ending ~30pts below the daily high. Not an aggressive move in any stretch and we’re clearly not seeing a lot of panic, however, when we stand back and look at stocks only a few percent below all-time highs and overlay that with Trumps call to evacuate Tehran, pushing up Oil prices, our bias is to err on the side of selectively reducing market exposure in the short term – the risk/reward has become less appealing, we think.
The ASX200 surprised many on Monday, managing to eke out a small gain even after the Dow tumbled over 760 points on Friday night, although it helped that US futures bounced ~0.5% during our trading session. It certainly hasn’t taken long for the Middle East conflict to join other recent geopolitical & macroeconomic events in being ignored by stocks, as fears of missing out on further strength remain a greater concern to many fund managers.
A very interesting session today for the ASX despite a small move at the index level. Escalation in the Israel/Iran conflict underpinned a str0ng move higher for energy stocks, with a bid for Santos (STO) thrown in the mix for good measure.
In the past, last week’s outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran was the kind of geopolitical flashpoint that might have triggered a full-blown market meltdown. Yet, so far, in a year where crises have come in waves, primarily courtesy of Trump 2.0, traders from London to New York have opted to hold their breath rather than flee en masse.
Even after slipping 0.2% on Friday, following Israel’s attack on Iran, the ASX200 managed to finish last week up +0.1%, posting its 5th consecutive weekly gain – overall impressive considering the unfolding conflict. Israel’s airstrikes on Iran added a fresh wave of uncertainty among investors, following closely on the heels of Trump’s promise that he intends to impose unilateral tariffs on dozens of US trading partners in the coming weeks. A weekend is a long-time when conflict breaks out, but whatever unfolds in the Middle East over the coming days/weeks, it’s likely to test the mettle of the current bull market and potentially provide an opportunity to buy weakness for the 2H of 2025:
