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The ASX 200 slipped 0.4% on Thursday in a quiet session, recovering more than half of its early losses as the banks provided the market with some degree of support. Conversely, the crowded growth trades that dominated the ASX’s performance through 2023/4 continued to struggle, e.g., Pro Medicus (PME) -7.8%, Zip (ZIP) -7.1%, NEXTDC (NXT) -6.5%, and HUB24 (HUB) -4.5% – more on this group later.
The ASX opened sharply lower following the U.S tech and auto selloff overnight after President Trump once again threw markets into a spin, re-introducing tariffs on automaker parts and vehicles.
The ASX 200 rallied 0.7% on Wednesday, with the banks being the cornerstone of the advance. ANZ was the standout, gaining 3% after falling 3.2% on Tuesday when it appeared the operator with a sell order exercised a very heavy hand.
The Budget released overnight had a typical pre-election vibe with higher spending and higher deficits underpinning front loaded initiatives to win votes. No signs of longer-term structural reforms around productivity nor any progress on reducing Government spending, with gross debt expected to continue to increase sharply ahead, from $940bn (or 33.7% of GDP) in 24/25; to $1,022bn (or 35.5% of GDP) in 25/26.
Yesterday, local shares pared early gains to finish only slightly higher as the “Big Four” banks struggled after a solid start. ANZ was the worst, down over 3% on significant volume after starting the day up around 20c.
In line with President Trump announcing a potential relaxing of tariff policies, we might have expected China-exposed stocks to move up today. Instead, the ASX followed the tech-focused rally in the U.S overnight.
Australian shares recovered from early selling on Monday to close marginally higher, with strength in the banks doing the heavy lifting – CBA, NAB, and Westpac added almost 25 points to the ASX 200.
The market opened down ~20pts before U.S futures kicked in mid-morning spurring a small rally to ~7935 before sitting in a 10-point trading range for the remainder of the day. A negative reaction to the blockbuster acquisition by James Hardie (JHX) highlighted a continued aversion to the U.S early on, though our market was quickly buoyed by a flight to financials, with banks enjoying a good start to the week.
Most pundits are blaming Trump 2.0 and the accompanying uncertainty that tariffs entail for the reason that many global indices have corrected from their recent highs; for example, the ASX 200 has fallen 10.2%, and the US S&P 500 has fallen 10.5%.
It was a better week for local stocks, with the ASX 200 bouncing 1.8% on broad-based gains, which saw all 11 major sectors advance, led by an unusual combination of consumer staples and energy stocks. Following a tough four weeks, the Australian share market notched its best weekly positive performance of 2025, but with new tariffs due on April 2nd, it could still become the calm before the storm. The lack of fresh tariff news and encouraging developments on the interest rate front was enough to “stop the rot” in equity land, but how the market deals with the next wave of bad news will tell us the real story.
