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Last week’s wild gyrations on Wall Street shook investor confidence, but amazingly, US stocks wiped out early losses to deliver their best weekly gain since 2023. The Fear Index (VIX) spiked towards 60 on Monday before dropping to about 37 on Friday afternoon as relative calm returned to markets—a good sign into the weekend when posts can fly on X.
Risk-off sentiment spilled over from overseas markets as the ASX gapped down -180pts on the open despite SPI futures indicating a less severe -115pt drop. Investors flocked to safe haven gold as the precious metal hit yet another all-time high above $US3100, with heavy selling in the growthier end of the market kicking things off.
The ASX 200 surged +4.5% on Thursday, delivering its best day since the GFC. At the opening bell, 199 of the ASX200 were higher, and even though the market drifted slightly from its euphoria-driven open by the end of the day, 199 stocks still closed higher.
It was a historic day as the ASX notched its biggest gain in over 5 years dating back to the COVID-19 pandemic. President Donald Trump’s 90 day pause on tariffs ignited equity markets around the globe and the local market was no different as the index soared +468pts on the open, until the realisation set in that tariffs on Chinese goods remain in place and were increased to 125%.
The ASX 200 endured another volatile and ultimately brutal session on Wednesday, ending down 1.8%, as Trump’s tariffs came into force. Trump’s latest tariffs pushed levies imposed on China this year to as high as 104%, along with import taxes on roughly 60 trading partners that ran trade surpluses with the US.
The market showed surprising strength on no positive news to kick the session off, especially considering the weaker U.S session overnight, the ASX initially down -150pts on the open before rallying, clawing back +100pts through the morning.
MM is adding a new position to the Active Income Portfolio today.
The ASX200 closed up more than 2% on Tuesday, with the market enjoying broad-based buying. All 11 major sectors advanced, led by Tech, while the defensives were the laggards. In yesterday’s report, we discussed volatility, but a few subscribers who liked the piece felt it was lost being too far into the daily missive; hence, here’s a follow-up summary, arguably even more pertinent after the last 24 hours.
The best days in the stock market often occur right after the worst days. 7 of the 10 best days in the market happened within two weeks of the 10 worst ones. Today was an example, as we chalked up the best day since 2022 with the ASX 200 up 2.3%, with all sectors finishing higher, led by the beaten-up technology stocks which have declined 25% since the start of February.
The ASX200 fell another 4.2% on Monday, its largest one-day drop since 2020, as concerns continue to escalate that Trump’s aggressive tariff policies will send the world into recession. The moves across a range of financial markets on Monday were pricing in a recession as “un fait accompli”, especially in the morning.
