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The timing is striking: October is just days away, and the U.S. faces yet another potential government shutdown. If it occurs, key releases such as next Friday’s September jobs report would be delayed. Historically, shutdowns tend to inject short-term volatility but rarely have a lasting market impact, as they are often averted at the last minute or resolved quickly, a fitting backdrop for October’s reputation for turbulence.
The ASX200 snapped a 3 week losing streak up +0.2% although the broad market was soft with 8 of the main 11 sectors closing lower. However, a stellar +5.9% advance by the influential materials sector was enough to see the local bourse close higher, even as global indices experienced a rare dip for 2025. This recent sector rotation into the miners will be challenged early next week following a dip by BHP in the US on Friday night.
The ASX clawed back early weakness on Friday down about ~25pts early but rebounded strongly with a +40pt rally, edging into positive territory as strength in miners and the big banks offset heavy losses across healthcare, though only four of eleven sectors ended in the green.
The ASX 200 closed up +0.1% on Thursday, but it was a very polarised performance under the market’s hood, with 8 of the main 11 sectors retreating, with some standout performances across the resources space required to hold the index in positive territory.
Copper stocks were the place to be today, with the sector rallying strongly following production issues at Freeport McMoran’s Indonesian operation, with no clear time frame for resumption. The move in Copper (+4%) highlights how tight the global market is for this critical input, highlighting why we remain bullish over the medium term. Stocks with exposure here from Sandfire (SFR) +7.6% to Aic Miners (A1M) +9.7%, Capstone (CSC) +10.8% and even BHP +3.6% led the line today, mirroring moves seen across copper companies globally. Elsewhere, banks were mildly better after a tough session yesterday, while the market recovered nicely from early morning weakness, the finish up 35 points from the morning lows.
The ASX200 fell 0.9% on Wednesday, driven lower by the financials and healthcare stocks. The market struggled early on, following a soft session on Wall Street, before the selling intensified after the monthly inflation read came in hotter than expected. Consumer prices rose 3.0 per cent in the year to August, slightly above the 2.9% expected, effectively killing any hope the RBA would cut interest rates next week.
A few cracks started appearing in the ASX today, with the recently buoyant banking sector in the cross hairs, the big 4 dropping an average of ~2.2% accounting for 50% of the main board’s ~80pt decline.
The ASX200 rose 0.4% on Tuesday, posting its 3rd consecutive gain, led by the financials and in particular the Big Four banks, which averaged a gain of ~0.8%. The materials sector was again strong, testing its 12-month high under the power of the large-cap iron ore miners and rampant gold market, which we will look at later, as China gave the precious metal another reason to charge higher.
The ASX 200 finished +0.4% higher on a fairly choppy Monday, which saw a very strong local market opening, eventually losing half of the early gains. The gains were very stock/sector specific, with only 6 of the main 11 sectors closing higher, but a stomping +2.6% session by the materials stocks was enough to drive the market higher, with gold equities again the shining light with the precious metal breaking well above the $US3,700/oz milestone.
The ASX traded higher to start the week, supported by strength across the resource complex as iron ore, copper, lithium and gold all pushed up, although the rally was trimmed from early highs as energy and financial stocks lagged.
