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A fairly quiet Monday given US markets are closed tonight although selling was the more obvious impulse overall. Iron Ore fell hard in Asia, down -9.5% as Shenzhen put in place some sporadic lockdowns due to COVID while wider growth fears permeated into the energy and resources complex with some big pullbacks right across the sector.
Global stocks have been smacked in 2022 with losses accelerating over the last few weeks primarily in our opinion because investors have simply lost confidence that central banks can / will balance inflation with economic growth, let’s just consider the RBA and some factors close to home:
Another soft session to end a very poor week for the ASX with the index down by -457pts/-6.6% over the 4 trading sessions. While the US market was soft overnight, down between 2.5% (Dow) & 4% (Nasdaq), their Futures rallied during our time zone today to be trading 1% higher around our close, implying a positive start (at least) there tonight. That saw our market close ~50pts from the session lows today, although it simply seemed a lack of interest following a pretty torrid week. Manly beating the Cowboys at Brooky tonight would help a little!
The ASX200 struggled again on Thursday as it failed to embrace the bounce by overseas bourses following the 0.75% interest rate hike by the Fed, or maybe it was simply smarter expecting the recent equities downtrend to continue over the coming weeks – it would appear so this morning! Overall the session was another lacklustre performance which may have seen the winners and losers evenly matched but when the banks struggle the local index tends to follow suit, Westpac (WBC) for example has now tumbled -20% in just 2-weeks.
A stronger open this morning for quarterly index & options expiry hence the delayed start, however, the first hour saw the best of it and the rest of the day was a soggy affair, a slow, meandering slide as selling kicked into US Futures. The market strength post the 0.75% rate rise in the US was short-lived, probably short-covering and now we enter another vortex of data that could well be filled with negative rhetoric.
The ASX200 endured another bad day at the office on Wednesday with the index closing down a further -1.3% after flouting with positive territory at lunchtime. Yesterday’s fall was on a distinct lack of buying as opposed to aggressive selling – investors remaining very nervous, a pretty understandable mindset considering the press, both financial and mainstream e.g. yesterday saw Jarden’s suggest local house prices are set for their worst fall in over 40-years. The prospect of the Fed hiking interest rates by more than expected this morning felt like it was enough to send buyers searching for cover as cash feels the comfortable option for many at the moment, ironically a relatively poor performing…
A choppy session for the ASX with the market showing early signs of stabilisation to be down only marginally before weakness crept into US futures which dragged the local index lower by the close. The US FOMC conclude their meeting on interest rates tonight where they’ll raise rates, probably by 0.50% or potentially a more aggressive 0.75%, recent leaks imply the latter while there have been growing calls to bite the bullet and raise by 1%. A 0.5% hike would deliver a US benchmark interest rate of 1.25%-1.50%
MM are amending our Flagship Growth & Active Income Portfolios
The ASX200 was hammered another -3.6% yesterday with well over 90% of the main board closing in the red, we may have bounced from support below 6600 but the market clearly remains very nervous. Recent weeks have certainly reinforced the old saying “sell in May & go away”, probably more effectively than all but the most pessimistic bears were expecting. During periods of uncertainty and volatility its important to maintain a degree of perspective even if feel like running for the hills, a move that history tells us is not a prudent course of action for long-term investors.
I have a few sayings written on my desk at work and at home, probably the most useful is simply ‘keep turning up’. By that I mean continue to do the work, don’t get too emotional about the market (the media does not do us a favour here) and continue to invest which is exactly what we should be doing in times like this. Sell-off’s pass and it’s the long game that we should all be focussed on. Today’s move was a big one on the downside, particularly this morning with the ASX keying off two bearish sessions in the US to fall ~5%. Nearly everything was sold…
