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A softer session to end a positive week for the ASX with the first full week of local reporting proving to be okay. Energy rallied back today, so too did the Telco’s while Property lost some of yesterday’s lustre.
The ASX200 roared higher on Thursday on optimism that peak inflation is behind us but not all parts of this fascinating puzzle are currently in alignment:
The ASX opened with a bang this morning rallying off the back of a strong session in the US following signs that inflation has peaked, CPI printing 8.5% versus 8.7% expected. This is a big deal, uncontained inflation is the reason why rates have risen so aggressively and why risk assets had been sold off. Stabilisation here provides more certainty and more certainty gives confidence, and we all know the market ebbs and flows in the short term on this metric.
The ASX200 struggled on Wednesday with many traders taking a back seat ahead of last night’s important US CPI (inflation) data, the index ultimately closed down -0.5% basically at the same level we started August. Selling was broad-based with 70% of the main index closing in the red but with the influential Banking Sector closing higher, even as Commonwealth Bank (CBA) slipped -0.3%, losses were limited i.e. for fireworks to be lit under the index we generally need to see the Resources & Banks run in one direction.
The ASX weakened today ahead of the all-important inflation print in the US tonight with consensus tipping a result of +8.7% YoY. Tech fell on concerns bond yields will rally again while the Utilities which are more defensive + some are linked to CPI fared well.
MM is making a number of changes across portfolios.
On Friday we saw an extremely strong set of US Employment numbers increase expectations of a 75bp hike at the September FOMC meeting but tonight’s CPI and the plethora of Fed speakers enjoying the limelight in coming weeks are likely to see opinions swing between 75bp, and back towards 50bp. The markets have taken a definite shift towards a more hawkish stance since Friday and another strong CPI print could easily see US 10 years back above 3% which will pressure equities and especially the Tech Sector.
A choppy / lackluster session today from an index perspective although there continued to be more activity under the hood. Communications & IT were strong, Utilities and Financials were not as the ASX 200 held within a very tight ~20 point trading range.
The ASX200 fought hard to overcome early weakness to close marginally higher on Monday although the gains were very stock / sector specific with under 40% of the main board managing to close in positive territory. Obviously the big news to kick off the week was BHP’s $8.3bn bid for “green metals” miner OZ Minerals (OZL) – more on this later, but the aggressive play by the “Big Australian” also added a tailwind to reverse some of the recent sector performance following the extremely strong US Jobs Report on Friday night which sent bond yields sharply higher:
The market continues to show resilience with any selling at the index level met with reasonable buying aided by corporate activity from BHP towards Oz Minerals (OZL) i.e. when the world’s largest resource company is happy to outlay $8.2bn in an all-cash tilt for another Copper miner, it implies a strong level of confidence in the global backdrop, and it looks like that confidence permeated through the rest of the market today. The ASX200 simply grinding higher – bottom left to top right – during the session to close above 7000 again.
