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The rout in the ASX resumed today after yesterday’s holiday. Weakness in risk assets came on the back of rate hikes from the US Fed (+75bps) and the BOE (+50bps), while the FOMC Chairman also warned of a recession. Today the market was concerned with a hit to earnings expectations and the higher discount rate that comes with a hawkish Fed. Materials held up in the face of the selling as iron ore found some support thanks to improving construction activity in China and the hope for further stimulus here.
The Australian market was closed over the Feds FOMC meeting for a National Day of Mourning for Her Majesty The Queen, normally a 24-hour pause wouldn’t be noticed by stocks but this was no ordinary rate decision and accompanying minutes from the Fed:
The ASX was hit more than 100 points today ahead of the public holiday tomorrow, obviously, overnight weakness in the US played into this, however, the outcome of the FOMC meeting tonight and our inability to react to whatever happens until Friday was enough to see traders take risk off the table into a day of light volumes. A weak open, a meander lower throughout the session before another leg lower on news that Putin had announced a partial mobilization saying that the West had tried to “turn Ukraine’s people into cannon fodder.”
The ASX200 recovered some recently lost ground on Tuesday enjoying broad-based buying but volumes were low, ultimately we saw over 70% of the index close in positive territory. The selling felt a touch exhausted yesterday following the recent aggressive downturn but there may be more bad news waiting in the wings before the weekend arrives:
A rally in US markets overnight and some support across commodities helped push the ASX higher today. Materials and Energy were the standouts though the rally was largely broad-based with just 2 sectors finishing in the red. Banks also enjoyed some strength today as the Big 4 all rallied more than 1%. Focus remains on big rate calls from the BOE and FOMC out later this week, volumes were light today with a lack of big bets either way from traders.
The ASX200 drifted lower yesterday on apparent nervousness ahead of this week’s US rates decision as economists weighed the prospect of a 0.75% move, or potentially a sledgehammer-style 1% rate hike – only a few months ago the idea of a 0.5% hike was foreign to investors now many believe it could be twice that amount! Markets are developing that self-fulfilling quiet before the storm feel about them before Wednesday’s decision, we’re still looking for buying opportunities but at the moment the path of least resistance remains on the downside.
The market looked average today with any intra-day rallies being sold with the ASX 200 closing on the day’s lows. A lack of interest more than anything which is understandable on a shortened week headlined by the FOMC meeting in the US on Wednesday where rates will go up by at least 75bps.
Stocks endured a very tough 2nd half to last week following a strong US CPI number which caught most economists on the wrong foot, again – consensus was for inflation to have fallen by -0.1% in August but in fact, it rose by yet another +0.1%. We feel the biggest problem for equities last week wasn’t so much the unexpected positive inflation print but the aggressive optimism fuelled rally that preceded the number:
The last 3-days saw the ASX200 take a 270-point / 3.9% hammering as it followed global equities sharply lower after the US CPI inflation numbers came in well ahead of expectations dashing the markets increasing hopes that the Fed will ease off any time soon from its aggressive hiking path.
The ASX softened into the weekend with two min drivers weighing on the index. Bond yields were in focus again today with Aussie 2 & 3-year yields rising over 2% to put pressure on risk assets. Weakness across commodities also weighed on the local bourse as the energy and materials sectors felt the most pain. It was surprising to see the tech and consumer discretionary sectors outperform despite the volatility again today. The selloff into the weekend took the week’s losses to -147pts/-2.13%.
