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The ASX finished an up and down session slightly lower as reporting season volatility continued, with results headlined by strong gains in Harvey Norman and Mesoblast on the other side with ~10% moves for both continuing the trend of outsized share price reactions to earnings beats/misses.
The ASX 200 advanced +0.2% on the penultimate trading day of August, taking its monthly gain to +2.7%. As we often say, there are “lies, more lies, and statistics,” and in this case, the average decline for August and September combined over the last decade before 2025 was around -3%. Interestingly, when August managed to close positively, it was followed by a poor September. Time will tell this year, but the market is feeling tired.
The ASX 200 ended the day up though it would have been a different story if it weren’t for strength in the banks with ‘The Big Four’ providing ~35pts of index gain with limited help from other sectors.
The ASX200 finished up +0.3% on Wednesday after an initial dip into lunchtime, following hotter-than-expected inflation data, which cooled expectations for a September rate cut. The big miners drove the market along with selected earnings standouts, even as the chances of a rate cut next month fell towards 20%.
The ASX moved higher today as strength in Materials and strong results from Tabcorp and Siteminder more than offset heavy losses in Woolworths with its worst single session on record after revealing a profit slump in their full-year result.
The ASX200 retreated 0.4% on Tuesday, struggling from the get-go after Wall Street’s weakness on Monday night. Almost 60% of the market retreated, with losses concentrated in the materials and utilities sectors, although both were only down around 1%.
The ASX lost some steam today and as we penned this morning, we believe the market is starting to feel tired after its 25% advance from the April lows.
The ASX200 closed up just +0.1% on Monday, after the index surrendered substantial early gains and failed to close above the psychological 9000 level. Selling was most noticeable in the banks, with the financial sector ending the day down 1.2% with 6 of the main boards’ 11 main sectors closing lower.
The ASX opened with a bang this morning hitting a high of 9054 before sellers got engaged, pushing the index down ~70pts from the early high. While the structure of the market still remains clearly bullish, we stick with our more neutral bias on stocks around all-time highs, and today’s selling into strength, supports that view.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his much-anticipated speech from Jackson Hole on Friday to signal that the US central bank is on track for an interest-rate cut in September, after holding its benchmark steady in the first eight months of the year. The market reaction was instantaneous, with Powell unleashing the biggest cross-market surge since April by striking a surprisingly dovish tone during his speech. The S&P 500 Index rebounded from a five-day slide, rising +1.5%; meanwhile, the rate/economically-sensitive Russell 2000 small-cap index surged almost 4%.
