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A mixed bag across the board today with sectors split pretty much down the middle, however, the heavy-weight sectors dragged the overall index lower. Quarterly reports from the miners dominated the news flow though it was the softness in commodity prices that mostly weighed on the sector. BOQ copped a few downgrades overnight and concerns around bad debts and competition for mortgages put pressure on the financials sector. The ASX 200 was down -31pts/-0.42% for the week.
We are trimming various holdings across the Income Portfolio to raise cash levels.
What Matters Today: Is it time for MM to consider property stocks for its Flagship Growth Portfolio?
In March the ASX200 Property Accumulation Index undeformed the ASX200 by -6.6% leading to today’s question of whether enough is enough. At this stage of the cycle, we believe real estate is all about how bad things can get i.e. if a company is trading well below the value of its asserts by definition a significant degree of bad news is already built into the stock. Analysts are understandably largely preferring companies with funding certainty that are well-positioned for a higher rate environment but there can always be opportunities when the crowd jumps from one ship to another.
Another tepid session for stocks with the ASX down early before a spirited fightback saw the market trade up for the day, before some selling took hold into the close. At this stage, the market simply feels tired after its stellar run as opposed to being bearish and swamped with high-volume selling. Today the winners actually outnumbered the losers (just), although a ~2% decline by the material sector is always going to weigh, offset by a good move higher by the banks.
MM is making multiple changes to portfolios today.
A month ago we posed the question “When should we rotate between gold, coal, and lithium – Part 2.” After watching gold slip $US40 like a proverbial knife through butter in the early hours this morning we thought this morning was an ideal time to revisit the sector especially as we hold a chunky 8% of the Flagship Growth Portfolio in Evolution (EVN) and Newcrest (NCM). Although we believe gold is likely to retrace its recent advance short term we believe second-guessing such a move could easily prove costly with regards to portfolio performance i.e. at MM we are investors, not traders.
Another fairly flat session by the ASX today, although it’s looking tired and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a near-term top evolve with the first signs of money transitioning from the edgier, high-beta areas into the more defensive plays. Still, with negative market positioning (high cash levels + high bond ownership v equities) very obvious we wouldn’t be running for the hills, meaningful tops don’t often correlate with pessimistic positioning – but a pause, consolidation, and a shallow pullback could easily play out.
The Australian market retreated on Tuesday with heavyweights BHP, CBA, and CSL all closing lower during another lacklustre session that saw over 60% of the mainboard retreat but only 2% of the ASX200 moved by over 5%. The markets are enveloped in negative sentiment yet the Australian market is only ~3.5% below its all-time high as investors await the perceived “inevitable correction”. However, as we’ve been saying if too many people are overweight cash and looking to buy dips such moves are usually shallower than expected.
A slow day for the market with a lot of fundies away for School holidays + finding compelling value is getting harder given the market’s recent run. Sometimes it’s best to sit tight and it certainly felt that way today in what proved to be a choppy but overall negative session for stocks with 65% of the index closing lower.
The new Australian Treasurer has inherited a whole pile of debt from the Liberal Party post-COVID and as would be expected he’s looking for pots of gold to replenish the coffers. The oil & gas industry is both cash rich and unpopular as we strive to live in a greener world i.e. it’s a prime candidate trumping the likes of Super and negative gearing in any popularity contest. We believe it’s inevitable the government will plunder their earnings as the huge profits roll in for the industry, yesterday Macquarie Group estimated such an increased tax would devalue heavyweight Woodside (WDS) by 2-5%, but we believe this is already largely priced into the sector.
