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Investors remain very concerned that a recession is approaching fast which hasn’t been helped by the ongoing political bickering around the US debt ceiling between Biden and McCarthy. We still believe the balance of probability is skewed heavily to a compromise which will send the US S&P500 to fresh 2023 highs but the ASX200 looks far less likely to challenge its equivalent levels as both the influential banks and resources weigh on the index, our index simply isn’t weighted as heavily towards the tech sector as the U
A quiet end to a busy week for markets with competing factors creating some big divergence across sectors. For the week, the ASX 200 fell by -1.68% while the Small Cap Index was off by -2.86% – smalls still can’t take a trick! These moves however underplay the variance across sectors with IT up +4.7% contrasted by the Materials sector which fell 3.45%.
On a day when the ASX fell over -1% the building stocks stood out to us as the main 4 winners in an otherwise especially tough session for the Materials Sector. The Australian building products names haven’t fared as well as some of their US peers but they’ve certainly managed to bounce strongly in 2023 after being smashed more than 50% in some cases, the question we ask today is should we be taking some profit after their strong moves?
A tough day for stocks with the heavy-weight sectors of Financials & Materials causing most of the pain. Despite the index finishing down ~1%, only 65% of stocks actually closed lower with the technology sector enjoying a phenomenal update from global chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA US) after the US close this morning – a stock we discussed this week here. That pushed Nasdaq Futures up +1.5% underpinning a 2.4% move higher from the Aussie tech sector.
US stocks fell again overnight as the debt ceiling debate drags on plus minutes from the recent Fed meeting showed members were split on whether to hike interest rates in June. The dust is settling after the Banking Crisis only to be replaced by the debt impasse, considering what’s been thrown at equities recently they’re holding reasonably well but the upside feels limited whenever the S&P500 tests the 4200 area.
The ASX opened lower to start the day and there was little in the way of buying support for the rest of the session as the index rolled off another ~25pts intra-day. Materials were the main drag on performance with iron ore continuing its slide while Tech was also soft as it gave back some of the recent outperformance with growth concerns weighing on sentiment. Energy went against the grain ahead of the next OPEC meeting, one of only three sectors to trade noticeably higher today.
The ASX200 continued to tread water on Tuesday with no fresh clear leads for investors to key off – the EOFY is looming and considering the plethora of worrying news that equities have been exposed to over the last 12 months our “Gut Feel” is the market could squeeze higher although it’s not a move we would position ourselves for especially with US politicians currently bickering around the debt ceiling.
Some optimism seen early with positive talk around the US debt ceiling negotiations but that seemed to evaporate, with the ASX following Asian markets down the gurgler by the close. Financials & property were solid, but anything linked to the consumer was soft.
Lithium stocks are arguably the sector which has garnered the most attention from subscribers post-COVID with many stocks surging higher as the EV revolution gathers momentum. Volatility as is often the case with “hot sectors” is ever-present but even after regular 15,20 and 40% pullbacks most of the quality names are close to their all-time highs helped by corporate activity breaking onto the scene.
