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The ASX200 came down to earth with a thud on Tuesday as rising bond yields finally took their toll on stocks. The local 3-year yield is up 0.5% over recent weeks, reducing the appeal of equities compared to bonds. Economic data at home and abroad has remained buoyant, lessening the need for significant rate cuts over the coming year.
A tough day at the office with the ASX opening down and building on the losses throughout the session. Bond yields ticked up in the US overnight and the theme continued in our market today with the Aussie 3-year yield up 11bps as rate cuts progressively get priced out of the market – the rate-sensitive stocks feeling the most heat today, though all 11 sectors finished in the red.
The ASX200 enjoyed a solid start to the week, with the index gaining 0.74% on broad-based buying, which ultimately saw ~70% of the main board close higher. On the sector level, only tech retreated, while the materials and energy stocks led the gains, with gold and uranium names dominating the “winners enclosure.”
Rocks and diamonds for the market today, with the index pushing higher throughout the session on broad based gains, though a few big (downside) moves from some high-profile stocks captured most of the headlines, with Billionaires Chris Ellison (MIN) and Richard White (WTC) in the media crosshairs while Nick Scali (NCK) gave a softer trading update and fell.
The bookies suddenly have Donald Trump as a standout favourite for next month’s election. With two weeks to go, he’s rated ~58% chance to win – it’s still a coin toss to us. However, over recent weeks, equity markets have weighed back into stocks benefitting from a Republican victory after previously swinging towards the Democrats following the Kamala Harris v Donald Trump debate.
Last week was a choppy affair for the ASX200, which, even after Friday’s aggressive 0.87% sell-off, still closed up 0.84% courtesy of a storming week for the financials. The action on the stocks/sector level remains more interesting than the too often tracked index, with the financials advancing +4.1% while the utilities, energy and tech sectors retreated 4.4%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively. We remain net bullish on the market into 2025, but if you’ve backed the wrong horse, it’s still likely to be a tough ride.
The market gave back all of yesterdays gains in a soft end to a positive week for stocks. The ASX 200 trading at a new all-time high of 8384 yesterday and while todays sell-off had some sting about it, the market was still up 0.8% for the week led by a bounce back in the financial stocks. Gold was strong in Asia today, cracking through $US2700/oz for the first time in history!
The ASX200 rallied 0.86% on Thursday, bringing the local index within striking distance of 8400 for the first time. Gains were broad-based, with ~75% of the main board closing higher, but the banks contributed the most points, with the “Big Four” closing up an average of 1.8% following a strong overnight result by Morgan Stanley (MS US) and stronger than expected employment data locally. We hate to be boring, but “the ASX doesn’t go down without the banks.”
A choppy but position session overall for the ASX, with a very bullish open (market up ~90pts at the highs), before a hotter than expected read on local employment sent bond yields higher (3’s up 5bps to 3.8%), the AUD was bought (+0.4% to 66.91c) while equities were sold as the timing of rate cuts got pushed further out into the Never Never…the market now pricing only a 20% chance of a cut this side of Christmas with the first full 25bps cut now not priced in until April 25.
The ASX200 slipped 0.4% on Wednesday, rotating through the day to close at a similar level to where it opened. The banks advanced throughout the session, with the financial sector ultimately finishing up by +0.27%. Conversely, the other ten main sectors closed lower, led by tech, which fell -1.35%, following the weak overnight session by their peers on Wall Street. There were a couple of interesting moves within the resources sector, both of which are worth monitoring.
