The ASX showed impressive resilience on Tuesday, reversing early triple-digit losses to finish down just 0.21%, in a near carbon copy of the previous week's price action. The broader market was healthier than the index implied, with fewer than 40% of stocks on the main board closing lower. However, the heavyweight miners continued to cause a significant drag, with BHP alone effectively accounting for all of the ASX200's decline. As June 30 approaches, some profit-taking and performance reversion are beginning to emerge across one of the market's standout-performing sectors.
The ASX spent most of today digging itself out of an early hole, with the market initially rattled by Friday night's strong US payrolls report before steadily recovering through the session. After falling sharply at the open, buyers gradually returned and by the close the index had trimmed the bulk of its losses - the market remains willing to buy weakness despite ongoing uncertainty around rates.
We read an interesting article in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) over the weekend, by Macquarie’s Viktor Shvets, around how to “play broken bubbly markets”. It was a good read by the well-respected Global Strategist, but the paragraph that caught our attention was around liquidity, one of the reasons MM has remained bullish towards global equities in 2026 - remember most major indices have enjoyed a solid albeit volatile year.
The ASX 200 fell 1.2% for the week as weakness in Financials (-2.1%) and Materials (-2.4%) offset a strong rebound in technology stocks. The ASX Tech Sector surged 7.7%, led by Pro Medicus (+25%), Megaport (+23%) and WiseTech Global (+11%), as investor concerns around AI disruption eased.
Market sentiment remained cautious amid escalating US-Iran tensions, falling iron ore prices and ongoing softness in the Australian property market. Miners, banks and gold stocks were among the worst performers, while investors increasingly rotated towards defensive sectors.
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report late in the week pushed bond yields higher and reignited concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated. The NASDAQ fell 4.8%, its sharpest decline since April 2025.
Looking ahead, US CPI data will be the key focus. A softer inflation reading could support growth and technology stocks, while a stronger result may pressure rate-sensitive sectors and reinforce expectations of further policy tightening.
SPI Futures currently suggest the ASX 200 could open around 1.3% lower when trading resumes.
Defensive rotation dominated Friday's session as traders continued to shed miners and banks in favour of healthcare and consumer staples, with iron ore's slide to a three-month low and lingering global uncertainty around the lingering Iranian situation hurting sentiment. The ASX 200 finished the week down –1.22%, capping a broadly risk-off five days.
The ASX200 retreated on Thursday as geopolitical concerns returned to the forefront, with fresh hostilities between the US and Iran offsetting recent optimism around peace negotiations. At the same time, investors took the opportunity to bank gains in the high-flying mining sector, which has supported the market through May.
The ASX was on the back foot from the opening bell as investors digested overnight missile strikes between the US and Iran. Selling was significant but orderly, with the market moving gradually lower through the morning before popping and stabilising ~30pts above the lows for much of the afternoon.
The ASX 200 traded above 8800 on Wednesday for the first time in four weeks as the miners and energy stocks pushed the index up +0.6% despite less than 45% of the main board closing higher. From a performance perspective, it was very much a case of “same story, different day” with BHP’s +2.4% advance, posting new all-time highs again, contributing ~60% of the main board's advance.
The market pushed higher as the day progressed, underpinned by weaker-than-expected GDP data bolstering hopes the Reserve Bank may hold off on further rate increases. The economy is slowing, the budget has knocked confidence, and it would be extraordinary if the RBA hiked in this environment – the market is slowly latching onto this view by the look.
The ASX performed resolutely on Tuesday to reverse early triple-digit losses and end the day down just -0.1%. In line with the 2026 playbook, the heavyweight miners, ably supported by the tech stocks, largely offset weakness in the banks, rate-sensitive stocks and the broader market, which saw over 60% of the main board close lower on the day. It's becoming repetitive of late, but +1.4% rally by BHP Group (ASX: BHP), to another all-time high, combined with positive moves by RIO Tinto (ASX: RIO) and Northern Star (ASX: NST) to add 30-points to the index, but weakness in the banks, and in particular ANZ, Westpac and NAB was enough to take more than 20-points from the index.
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