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Thoughts on Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.

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Thoughts on Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

Dear James, Shawn, and the MM team, Thank for all the excellent work you all are doing. I would like to hear your opinion on WHC, as its stock price has moved down from $7.50 on 14/2 (WHC announced Half Yearly result on 15/2) to $6.79 close on Tuesday 12/3. I think the main concern is that WHC may need to raise capital to fund the acquisition of the Daunia and Blackwater coal mines. The management, however, has flagged an opportunity to sell 20% in Blackwater to steel producers; and this could solve the Balance Sheet problem for WHC. I noticed that four insiders have purchased over 56K WHC shares costing $396K on 16/2, one day after Half Yearly announcement, around $7.10 per share. Does this mean short to medium term the stock price of WHC might go up around 10% to 15% to $8.10. Thanks again for taking this question.

Answer

Hi Peter,

We have looked at WHC a few times in 2024 as the stock/sector drifted lower  in line with the coal price. WHCs report in February was weaker than MM would have liked but we feel the stock has been sold off more aggressively than warranted with the stock now trading on a valuation well below its global peers. Moving forward we see WHC as unlikely to require additional capital until 2HFY which gives it plenty of time to sell-down part of its recently acquired Daunia/Blackwater mine – as we saw with Liontown Resources (LTR) on Wednesday when the balance sheet is addressed stocks can drive higher.

  • We remain bullish WHC medium term believing the transition to zero emissions will prove harder than many imagine – MM holds in WHC in our Active Growth Portfolio.

As to the insider buying its always encouraging and a sign to us that the business is performing well operationally but if the coal price continues to drift, WHC is likely to follow suit.

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Whitehaven Coal Ltd (WHC)
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