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What’s the catalyst going to be?

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Question asked 03/10/2026

What’s the catalyst going to be?

Morning Gents, it's Broken Record here again. I'm still watching commodities and precious metals being smashed. Uranium is in the doldrums just ahead of what is supposed to be the start of a strong contracting season. Yet all of this is still being talked up with huge targets supposedly being reached before Christmas. The market doesn't seem to be convinced. What is the catalyst everyone seems to be waiting for to break this downtrend?

Answer

Morning David,

Bonds are driving markets at the moment with yields at multi-year highs supporting the US$ and weighing on commodities. There are 2 obvious answers which are pretty correlated at the moment:

US inflation starts to moderate, supporting bonds creating a tailwind for the miners.
We see a resolution to the US-Iran conflict which leads to a softening oil price which should be bullish for most commodities, including gold & copper.

chart

US 30-Year Bond Yields

LAST UPDATED 02/10/2026 10:12

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