Hi Matt,
We’ve been bearish the defence space through 2026 for reasons you alluded to, i.e. in simple terms it feels as good as it gets for the sector. If we get a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East, or dare we hope something similar in the Ukraine the sectors likely to extend its ~25% correction. Plus, the next US President is unlikely to be as confrontational as President Trump. Markets will price the future more than they price the here and now.
- DFND’s tilt towards higher-growth defence technology is a double-edged sword. Holdings such as Palantir and other AI and drone companies drove much of the upside but also contributed disproportionately to the recent pullback, with valuations remaining elevated despite the correction.
- ARMR is more heavily weighted to established defence primes including Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman and BAE Systems. These companies trade on more moderate valuations, supported by stronger earnings visibility and long-term defence backlogs, giving ARMR a more ‘defensive’ profile.
Across the two, valuations have become more reasonable, although neither ETF is cheap. At this stage we aren’t considering the defense sector, still believing the risk/reward is weighing against it.
- MM has gone from bearish to neutral towards the defence sector, but we’re not calling it a buy yet.