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What’s MM’s longer term view on Nickel?

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What’s MM’s longer term view on Nickel?

Nickel is big news this week, more so after the BIG write down by BHP on its nickel assets. Generally it seems to be portrayed as massive increase in production from Indonesia at lower costs & a slower uptake of EVs making demand not so stratospheric as some forecasts. Is there some other big theme at play? Is BHP’s write down more to accounting standards than a long term shake down of the nickel market? What is your medium/ long term views?

Answer

Hi Glenn,

It’s the same theme that always plays through the commodities space, one of supply & demand, just in this case, on steroids!

  • Demand has disappointed over recent years as the EV take up has been below forecasts, especially in the US.
  • Supply has increased with “dirty nickel” out of Indonesia flooding the market and crushing prices of the metal.

We believe buying opportunities will present themselves in related stocks but at this stage, Indonesia clearly has a desire to wipe out competition, so we prefer simpler alternatives to the ESG revolution such as Pilbara Minerals (PLS), i.e. lithium.

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Nickel ($US/MT)
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