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How should I react if yen declines to 164 to about US$?

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How should I react if yen declines to 164 to about US$?

Blimey, talk about moving from the frypan - South Korea - into the fire - Japan! I'm invested in HJPN (Japan hedged) rather than IJP (Japan unhedged) because until very recently HJPN has performed much better. I have been reading lots on Scott Bessant's move to bolster the yen as it is very much in America's interest to do so. I watch the exchange rate carefully. But, I'm in rather a fog as to whether I should sell quickly if the traders have their way and it falls, or wait and judge the reaction of BoJ and the US until a direction becomes clearer. Any suggestions from your team would be appreciated. I'm not used to dealing with these huge currency challenges!

Answer

Hi Bill,

An interesting quandary, especially when we look at the chart below where a weak Yen (Strong USDJPY) has helped drive the Nikkei higher as Japanese exports become more competitive – the Yen has fallen a whopping ~60% against the US$ since COVID. We’ve broken our answer down into 2 halves:

  • We remain bullish towards the Nikkei targeting the 75,000 area before Christmas, or 8-10% higher although we do believe the bullish advances since April 2025 is starting to mature.
  • The Yen weakness feels capped by the BOJ/Fed but that doesn’t mean the markets ready to fall back towards 140, or 10% lower.

We are bullish towards the Nikkei but at this stage would be more inclined to hold a hedged position being more uncertain how the next chapter on the FX front plays out.

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Nikkei 225 Index v USDJPY
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