Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) price target?
Hi Team, Would appreciate your views around your projected price target for FMG for the next 12 months ? It's been a frustrating stock , as BHP and RIO have rocketed and FMG has gone backwards. Cheers Craig
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Answer
Hi Craig,
The differential in performance across the 3 has been all about iron ore and copper with the bulk commodity down ~16% YTD compared to the industrial metals ~17% advance. The very different performances across the 2 commodities have translated directly to the miners in line with the respective exposure:
- So far in 2026 BHP is +29%, RIO Tinto +4% while FMG has retreated -31%: basis Wednesdays trade.
We are not overly optimistic on FMG at the moment given ongoing negotiations with China’s CMRG, which is weighing on sales and realised pricing. At the same time, FMG still has substantial capital commitments across Iron Bridge, Blacksmith and its decarbonisation program. The issue for us is that FY27 operating cash flow is now likely to dip below capex, which could put pressure on the dividend.
While there is scope for improvement if the CMRG issue is resolved quickly and inventory converts back into cash, the near-term setup has clearly deteriorated.
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Fortescue Ltd (FMG vs. BHP Group Ltd (BHP) vs. RIO Tinto (RIO)
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Fortescue Ltd (FMG vs. BHP Group Ltd (BHP) vs. RIO Tinto (RIO)
