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The ASX took a punch today, but importantly, it got back off the canvas. The index was down as much as 1.8% around midday, its worst intraday fall since March, before buyers finally emerged and trimmed almost half of the session’s worst losses. It was still a third consecutive decline and all 11 sectors finished lower, but the late recovery was the first sign in a few sessions that the market is prepared to lean into weakness (at the right price).
The catalyst wasn’t complicated with oil and bonds are squeezing equities from both sides. Brent pushed through US$101/bbl as hopes for a quick resolution to the US-Iran conflict faded, while Australian 10-year yields hit 5.27% — their highest level since 2011. Higher oil is feeding inflation fears, inflation is pushing rate expectations higher, and higher yields are forcing investors to question what multiple they are prepared to pay for equities. That’s an uncomfortable cocktail for an ASX that was sitting at record highs only a few weeks ago.
There was also a distinctly local problem. AMP brought forward its expected RBA hike from November to September, while markets are now pricing a 79% chance of a hike this month, up from 64% earlier in the week, and are fully priced for another increase by mid-2027. Perhaps the most interesting part of today’s session was what didn’t work. Copper hit another record high overnight and iron ore held around US$99/t, yet Materials was still smashed, with BHP down almost 3% early. When miners fall despite their underlying commodities behaving well, it’s a decent indication that the market is selling risk.
- ASX 200: -92.03pts (-1.03%) to 8,819.40
- AUD/USD: 0.7215, flat
- Best sectors: Consumer Disc. -0.63%, Utilities -0.33%, Communications -0.13%
- Worst sectors: IT -1.74%, Materials -1.63%, Industrials -1.04%
- Materials -1.63% led the market lower despite copper hitting another record overnight, with BHP (ASX: BHP) -1.77% to $63.44, Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) -2.71% to $174.47 and Fortescue (ASX: FMG) -2.39% to $17.19 all weaker, while IGO (ASX: IGO) -2.22% to $7.93 and Liontown (ASX: LTR) -3.31% to $1.17 were also hit hard. The fact miners were sold despite supportive commodity prices highlights how much of today was about broader de-risking rather than fundamentals. BHP held in the Active Growth and Income Portfolios, FMG in Active Income Portfolio, LTR in Emerging Companies.
- Financials: The banks remained firmly in the firing line as bond yields pushed higher and expectations for another RBA hike increased. CBA (ASX: CBA) -1.32% to $153.20, NAB (ASX: NAB) -1.44% to $37.72, ANZ (ASX: ANZ) -0.38% to $36.65 and WBC (ASX: WBC) -1.57% to $33.85 were all weaker, continuing the recent unwind across the sector. ANZ held in the Active Growth and Income Portfolios. WBC in Active Income Portfolio.
- Technology: Another tough day for long-duration growth as higher discount rates continued to compress valuations, with Xero (ASX: XRO) -3.96% to $68.79 and WiseTech (ASX: WTC) -1.62% to $33.97 lower again, although Megaport (ASX: MP1) +4.25% to $18.41 remained a notable exception after gaining more than 11% over the past week. Xero & WiseTech held in the Active Growth Portfolio.
- Energy held up relatively well as Brent traded above $95/bbl, with Karoon (ASX: KAR) +2.23% to $1.83 and Beach Energy (ASX: BPT) flat at $0.875 among the steadier performers. Energy remains the obvious hedge against the current oil shock, although the sector struggled to completely escape the broader risk-off move.
- West African Resources (ASX: WAF) +2.91% to $3.89 bucked the carnage after delivering a strong first full half of combined Sanbrado and Kiaka production, reporting $1.46bn revenue, $437m NPAT and $690m operating cash flow, while declaring a chunky 20¢ special dividend and flagging accelerated debt repayments.
- Nine Entertainment (ASX: NEC) -5.39% to $0.79 was one of the day’s biggest casualties after extending its Premier League rights through to 2034. The EPL has helped drive a 50% increase in average Stan Sport subscribers over the past year, but the loss of Optus contributions means Nine will shoulder more of the cost itself.
- St Barbara (ASX: SBM) +16.44% to 85c surged after agreeing to sell its remaining interest in New Simberi to Lingbao for $453m, taking pro-forma cash to around $880m with no debt or hedging. It retains royalty exposure and is considering a ~13¢ fully franked special dividend on top of the 5¢ already declared, plus potentially a buyback — effectively turning the story into a large cash return with some optionality still attached.
- NEXTDC (ASX: NXT) -3.83% to $12.30 priced a $1.1bn convertible note issue due 2031 to help fund its development pipeline, carrying a 1.75% coupon and an initial conversion price of $16.695, a 32.5% premium to the reference price. The funding reinforces its significant liquidity position, although raising capital in a market suddenly obsessed with bond yields is hardly ideal timing.
- GrainCorp (ASX: GNC) -4.03% to $6.66 reaffirmed FY26 guidance with EBITDA expected around the midpoint of its $200–240m range, but delayed the first stage of its systems transformation into CY27 and lifted associated FY27 spending by around $30m. After rallying roughly 45% since early July, the market wasn’t inclined to forgive much today.
- Breville (ASX: BRG) -1.01% to $31.31 slipped after CEO Jim Clayton sold $4.37m of shares between 3 and 8 September. His remaining holding is still worth around $6.36m and remains above the company’s minimum ownership requirement, but director selling rarely wins many friends when the broader market is already looking nervous.
- Austal (ASX: ASB) -6.01% to $4.38 gave back some of yesterday’s M&A-driven gains, while IperionX (ASX: IPX) -8.36% to $2.85, Westgold (ASX: WGX) -5.66% to $5.83, Elders (ASX: ELD) -4.29% to $6.25, and Pinnacle Investment Management (ASX: PNI) -5.69% to $13.93 were also among the heavier casualties as investors reduced risk across the board. PNI held in Emerging Companies Portfolio.
- Gold: $4,416.31 / +0.40%
- Brent crude: $95.43 / -0.65%
- Iron Ore: $98.30 / -1.17%
- S&P 500 E-mini futures: +18.25pts / +0.24%
- Dow E-mini futures: +218.00pts / +0.42%
- FTSE futures: -8.00pts / -0.07%
