Historically, the Dow Jones (0.97x) has the strongest correlation with the ASX 200, reflecting both indices’ heavier exposure to industrials, financials and energy rather than technology – unfortunately the ASX isn’t listening at the moment! The Dow may feel stretched at a glance having surged more than +18% from its April tariff panic low but we wouldn’t consider fighting the trend as we head into the US reporting season. Consensus expectations are for +24% earnings growth in Q2.
- We can see the Dow punching higher into Christmas with a break above 55,000 looking likely.