The ASX 200 slipped 0.6% last week despite stellar gains by the healthcare (+9.2%) and materials (+5.6%) sectors, as the “Big Four Banks” continued to weigh heavily on the local index. We’re three weeks into August and reporting season is going “ok”, but the polarisation between the miners and banks remains entrenched: the miners are rallying with strength in copper and gold while the banks are struggling, being hit with the trifecta of a crunch in housing activity, net interest margin compression, and rising risks of bad debts – as Led Zeppelin famously sang in the 70’s “The Song Remains the Same.”
As we would expect this time of year, last week’s losers’ enclosure was dominated by companies that disappointed the market with their FY26 reports. Still, the winners’ enclosure was a different story, dominated by a resurgence in CSL Ltd, gold stocks and yet another takeover bid.
Winners: CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) +23%, Ora Banda (ASX: OBM) +23%, Reliance (ASX: RWC) +20%, Resolute Mining (ASX: RSG) +19%, Alkane Resources (ASX: ALK) +17%, Minerals 260 (MI6) +17%, Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) +16%, and Regis Resources (ASX: RRL) +16%.
Losers: IRESS (ASX: IRE) -20%, JB Hi-Fi (ASX: JBH) -15%, Megaport (ASX: MP1) -14%, Lend Lease (ASX: LLC) -14%, HUB24 (ASX: HUB) -13%, Downer (ASX: DOW) -12%, Aurizon (ASX: AZJ) -12%, IperionX (ASX: IPX) -12%, Life360 (ASX: 360) -12%, and Sims Ltd (ASX: SGM) -11%.
Weekly snapshot: Last week the ASX was dominated by events in the US where Scott Bessent sent the miners, and in particular gold stocks, soaring:
- The ASX started the week on the back foot, with 8 of 11 sectors lower as reporting season drove a sixth decline in seven sessions, despite strong gains by the miners.
- Despite CSL setting the market alight on Tuesday (+17%) following its FY26 report, the market again struggled to post gains as the banks retreated.
- Mid-week saw a return to tech weakness as global semiconductors and the “AI Trade” weighed on anything tech-facing.
- Gold and the miners ripped higher on Thursday after the US Treasury ramped up its bond buying to rein in runaway long-dated bond yields.
- The week ended with some profit-taking in the miners, but this will be more than reversed on Monday after very strong gains in US trade.
The week ahead is headlined by Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, which, given its large influence on the global AI trade, should set the tone for tech-exposed names across both the S&P 500 and ASX. Also in focus is the Jackson Hole economic symposium, where Fed commentary will be closely scrutinised after rising Treasury yields rattled Wall Street and caused the US Treasury bond action last week. The domestic calendar for Australia next week is relatively light, with the RBA minutes from the August meeting the key release to watch while reporting season continues in earnest.
Overseas markets ended the week strongly with “risk on” back in vogue as gold and bitcoin surged in unison. In Europe, the EURO STOXX 50 and UK FTSE both gained +0.6%, while in the US, the Dow (+1%) and Russell 2000 (+0.9%) small-cap indices led the gains.
- The SPI Futures are calling the ASX200 to open up +0.5% on Monday following strength on Wall Street and strong performance by miners – BHP was trading up ~$2.50 in the US.
