The ASX 200 finished a volatile week virtually unchanged, holding the key 8,800 level despite escalating US-Iran tensions and a near-20% plunge in semiconductor stocks. The broader tone turned “risk-off” late in the week, with the miners the main weight on the index on a combination of renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and disappointing trading updates from the likes of BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN).
Last week’s winners and losers were a very polarised affair, with the winners dominated by turnaround stories, whereas the losers carried far more than its fair share of gold and uranium names.
Winners: AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) +21%, Domino’s Pizza (ASX: DMP) +10%, REA Group (ASX: REA) +8%, James Hardies (ASX: JHX) +7%, Tabcorp (ASX: TAH) +7%, Amplo Ltd (ASX: ALD) +6%, SEEK (ASX: SEK) +6%, and ASX Ltd (ASX: ASX) +6%.
Losers: Kingsgate (ASX: KCN) -21%, Silex Systems (ASX: SLX) -21%, Electro Optic (ASX: EOS) -16%, Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) -16%, Deep Yellow (ASX: DYL) -15%, Regis Resources (ASX: RRL) -14%, and Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM) -12%.
Weekly snapshot: The standouts of the ASX last week were weakness across the miners being offset by a firm broader market:
- The ASX didn’t get any favours from overseas markets last week, but its internals remain strong with the index closing near its daily highs on 7 of the last 8 sessions.
- The miners led the index higher in the first part of the week before the operational hiccups surfaced, reversing the outperformance.
- Thursday saw the Materials Sector noticeably drag on the ASX, after BHP warned copper production would decline in FY27, while iron ore slipping back below US$100/t didn’t help.
- The week ended on a soft note as renewed Middle East fighting pushed oil towards US$90, pressured the miners and reinforced higher-for-longer rate concerns, weighing on risk appetite.
Next week brings a busy macro and earnings calendar. In the US, Alphabet and Intel headline earnings, with commentary on AI spending and capex likely to be closely scrutinised following the recent semiconductor sell-off sparked by China’s Moonshot AI claims. The US flash Manufacturing PMI and weekly jobless claims are the key economic releases, while in Australia, June employment data could potentially reshape RBA rate expectations. Geopolitics will also remain in focus, with escalating tensions in the Middle East supporting the energy risk premium and weighing on the likes of copper and gold.
Overseas markets ended the week on the back foot as semiconductor names dipped after the Chinese startup revealed an AI model. The NASDAQ fell -1.5%, rounding off its worst week in almost a month, while the Dow fared better, only slipping just -0.4%. In Europe, the German DAX slipped -0.3% while the UK FTSE managed to advance +0.3%.
- The SPI Futures are calling the ASX200 to open up more than 50 points on Monday despite weakness on Wall Street.
