The ASX200 ended a choppy week with an impressive triple-figure gain on Friday, which propelled the index up +0.9% for the week and into positive territory for July, seasonally the strongest month of the year for the Australian market. The strength at the end of the week was driven by an impressive rally in gold stocks, ably supported by fellow heavyweight miners following weak US jobs data dampened expectations of a Fed rate hike. Elsewhere, heavy losses in the global semiconductors caught the news but had little impact on the ASX.
Last week’s winners and losers were dominated by company news and some solid buying across the gold names, while real estate stocks were the most prevalent group on the wrong side of the ledger.
Winners: Neuren Pharma (ASX: NEU) +37%, Perpetual (ASX: PPT) +25%, Gen Dev. Group (ASX: GDG) +20%, Life360 (ASX: 360) +17%, Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) +17%, HUB24 (ASX: HUB) +16%, FireFly Metals (ASX: FFM) +15%, and Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM) +15%.
Losers: PEXA Group (ASX: PXA) -16%, Minerals 260 (ASX: MI6) -11%, Sims Ltd (ASX: SGM) -10%, APA Group (ASX: APA) -8%, GPT Group (ASX: GPT) -7%, Stockland (ASSX: SGP) -6%, Region Group (RGN) -6%, and BlueScope Steel (ASX: BSL) -6%.
Weekly snapshot: The standout last week was the weak US employment data on Thursday night, which unleashed buying across the miners on Friday:
- The last 2-days of FY26 were very choppy affairs on the ASX, with weakness across the miners limiting the gains.
- The banks started FY27 in the naughty corner as the Australian housing market continued to deteriorate.
- M&A again raised its head as Swedish private equity group EQT made a bid for Perpetual, which, as is the playbook, was knocked back.
- Coles took a hit after confirming it ran foul of the ACCC and is assessing a potential acquisition of Greencross (more M&A).
- The Bank of America turned the banks on their head after upgrading NAB, sending the least exposed major to property up more than +3%.
- A weak US employment report on Thursday night helped propel the ASX miners higher on Friday as credit markets reduced bets toward Fed rate hikes through 2026.
Next week is a quiet one for domestic data, potentially leaving investors focused on a weakening housing market. Offshore, the key events are the US ISM Services Index (Monday) and weekly Jobless Claims (Thursday), with further signs of US labour market weakness likely to reduce expectations of Fed rate hikes, potentially providing a tailwind for gold and materials.
Overseas markets ended the week in a muted fashion, with the US closed for Independence Day while Europe drifted higher in choppy trade. The UK FTSE finished up +0.3%, lagging the German DAX, which closed up +0.8%.
- The SPI Futures are calling the ASX200 to open down 0.4% on Monday after an uninspiring session in Europe and no lead from the US, which was closed.
