The ASX 200 ended a relatively quiet week down just 0.1%, not a bad effort considering ANZ and Westpac (WBC) delivered slightly softer 1H25 results, and WBC traded ex-dividend. Positive tariff news from the UK and US, plus optimism that something positive will come from the pending early talks between the US and China, supported a fairly lacklustre market, which remained in a tight 1.3% range all week. With news flow from Trump 2.0 relatively slow, the market was primarily keying off stock-specific news from reporting and the Macquarie Conference, leading to a very mixed bag in the “Winners & Losers” enclosure:
Winners: Liontwon (LTR) +23.3%, Block Inc (XYZ) +15.5%, Generation Dev Group (GDG) +15.4%, Deep Yellow (DYL) +14.4%, Gold Road (GOR) +10.4%, Orica (ORI) +9.3%, DigiCo (DGT) +7.1%, Ramsay (RHC) +7%, Magellan (MFG) +6.6%, Super Retail (SUL) +5.2%.
Losers: Nuix (NXL) -11%, Light & Wonder (LNW) -9.3%, Telix (TLX) -8.6%, Imdex (IMD) -7.3%, CSL Ltd (CSL) -6.7%, Lynas (LYC) -6.2%, SiteMinder (SDR) -5.7%, ANZ Group (ANZ) -4.6%, Judo Capital (JDO) -4.5%, and Cochlear (COH) -2.9%.
Things steadily improved on the tariff front throughout the week, although most of the news which was delivered via social media posts from President Trump was short on details:
- The week started on the back foot following Westpac’s miss, creating selling across the influential banking sector and energy stocks fell after OPEC again hiked output.
- On Tuesday, local Building Approvals and Household Spending came in below estimates, but the impact on equities was minimal.
- Wednesday saw China’s long-awaited rate cuts revealed, lifting ASX commodities and energy stocks higher, but they’re not convinced yet.
- The ASX200 ended the week strongly, on broad-based gains following the US-UK trade agreement. Although it’s short on details, it’s an encouraging step in the right direction.
- The market will be closely watching the news from Switzerland, where Chinese representatives and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are set to meet to discuss trade in the coming days.
We continue to believe the ASX200 will climb through 2025, but as we saw last week, it needs a “rest” after an intense and volatile few months:
- We continue to anticipate the ASX will rally through 2025 with a break to new all-time highs, looking increasingly likely before Christmas.
Overseas markets were again mixed on Friday night. Europe performed the best, with the EURO STOXX 50 closing up +0.4% and the UK FTSE +0.3%. In the US, it was a more muted affair as indices surrendered early gains to close lower. The S&P 500 retreated 0.1% and the Dow 0.3% as stocks limped into the weekend ahead of US-China talks, with investors wary of news flow over the weekend.
- The SPI Futures are calling the ASX 200 to open up +0.2% on Monday, with a 40c jump by BHP in the US set to be supportive.
