Bitcoin became closely associated with Trump after he embraced the crypto industry during the 2024 campaign, reversing his previously sceptical stance. He pledged to make the US the “crypto capital of the world”, establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler and introduce a more supportive regulatory framework. The prospect of a pro-crypto administration, combined with strong industry backing, helped propel Bitcoin to record highs through the 2025 inauguration. The policy backdrop initially reinforced the rally, with Gensler replaced, several SEC enforcement actions dropped, and Congress advancing crypto legislation.
However, Bitcoin has become one of the worst-performing Trump trades in 2026, down ~30% YTD, as a higher-for-longer Fed and fading regulatory optimism outweighed the benefits of a more crypto-friendly policy environment. We don’t follow Bitcoin closely except as a leading indicator for market liquidity, a correlation that has broken down of late, but we know some MM subs like to venture into this “casino” on occasion, hence todays update.
- We believe the sell off in Bitcoin is maturing, and can see a test of US$80,000 in the months ahead, a good sign for risk assets.
MM is cautiously bullish towards Bitcoin around US$65,000
Add To Hit List
