Gold Outlook Turning Positive as Macro Headwinds Ease
Market Matters | ASX Gold Stocks Analysis
Newmont Mining (ASX:NEM) has rallied ~5% on Wednesday following the US-Iran 2-week ceasefire agreement saw gold stocks propel the ASX200 back within ~2.5% of its all-time high.
What’s driving the strength in gold stocks?
The strength across the gold sector is being driven by a ~$US100 lift in the precious metal, back towards $US4,850 as bonds lift on hopes that inflation can be controlled as oil prices fall across the board.
Why it matters for Newmont
Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner which is estimated to enjoy $US28bn in revenue in FY26 of which ~85% comes from the precious metal. Every $100 move in gold adds roughly ~$550–600mn to Newmont’s revenue, with a large portion flowing through to earnings.
Market Matters view
While there can be no total certainty around the Middle East, we believe the worst is in the rear-view mirror which will add a tailwind to gold stocks through the remainder of 2026.
We view the ~32% correction as complete targeting a test of $200 in 2026, or 15-20% higher.
Bottom line
Newmont Mining (ASX:NEM) may already have bounced more than 30% from its March low but we are targeting further strength through the remainer of the year.
