Morning Report Friday 21 November 2014
The ASX200 continues to be punished as the outlook for China worsens, hammering the Iron Ore, plus we seem to recently have had additional bad news coming from all angles e.g. Woolworths (WOW) and Sonic Healthcare (SHL). Seasonal trends are now turning positive, whether the market listens this year is the big question. Below is a summary of seasonal statistics that would usually point to a strong rally after the recent 245-point ( 4.4%) fall, BUT remember I am targeting a 15% fall from US equities early next year and the ASX200 actually often leads markets.
Since 1950, the Australian Market has produced an average gain of 2.09% in December, win rate 73%, with 46 up months & 17 down months. The 14th trading day (yesterday) is often the turning point; hence data suggests that this November fall is probably the pause that refreshes.
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