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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 85.01 Fair value 101.66 One-star price 121.57
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (85.01) to the one-star price (121.57).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): USD/USD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 118.77 |
| Price - 12 month high | 135.15 |
| Price - 12 month low | 98.90 |
| Pricing date | 27 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 21.01 |
| Market capitalization | 942,291.04 |
| 12 Month High price date | 19 MAY 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 14 NOV 2025 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 23.62 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -0.46% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 5.01% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -6.91% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 0.82% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 15.12% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 6.12% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 9.23% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 2.730 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 2.760 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 2.640 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 88.901 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 91.980 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 12.501 |
| Book value per share - most recent quarter | 12.369 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 9.718 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent quarter | 9.637 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.346 |
| Cash per share - most recent quarter | 1.452 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 5.088 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 5.461 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.940 |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.978 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 5.802 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 2.740 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 2.770 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 2.740 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 2.770 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 1.784 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 43.03 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 42.12 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 1.29 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 13.48 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 66.58 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 21.75 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 9.60 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 49.16 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 36.38 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 62,226.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 56,368.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 1.13% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 0.82% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 0.82% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 14,171.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 51.30% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | 34.43% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 63.19% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent quarter | 54.59% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent quarter | 70.38% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 14,271.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | 35.87% |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 713,163.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 735,840.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 46,103.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 46,412.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 29,469.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 29,316.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 21,893.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 22,076.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 29,469.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 2.82 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 3.12% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 3.06% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 4.18% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 4.39% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 3.98% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 4.13% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 4.11% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 3.48% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 2.04% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 1.94% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 2.57% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 8.14% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 7.88% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 24.17% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 23.52% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 6.53% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 20.12% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | 10,604.76 |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | 339,601.43 |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 4.99% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 11.51% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 7.98% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 6.31% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 5.27% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | 24.34% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 5.51% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 21.02% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 6.34% |
Financial forecast (USD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | ||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (USD, millions)
| Period end: | JAN 22 | JAN 23 | JAN 24 | JAN 25 | JAN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
Announcements are available for ASX-listed companies only.
Overnight, WMT beat quarterly revenue and earnings estimates, which included e-commerce growth of +22%. The retailer now expects to hit the top end or slightly above previous guidance. CFO John David Rainey told CNBC that the gap between the price of cooking at home and eating out is helping Walmart’s grocery business. The stock closed up +7%, making it the backbone of the Dow's advance above 40,000.
Most people have started to feel the pinch of rising interest rates combined with the general cost of living but as we all know people need to eat and shop at supermarkets, they are not destinations of discretionary spending except for the quality/cost of individual items chosen – more expensive options generally have higher margins. Operationally these...
With a market capitalization of US$382bn, Walmart has a huge operation with exposure to a broad cross-section of America, its customer base looks very much like the US population. They reported quarterly earnings overnight that were better than expected and the stock rallied, but more importantly, it is another piece of evidence that suggests things are improving in the US, and this has positive ramifications for Australia.
Walmart (WMT US) has corrected 27% from its 2022 but the downside momentum both in terms of downgrades and share price looks to have further to play out i.e. no hurry to start accumulating.
Last week we saw US retailer Target (TGT US) plunge 25% on inflation fears leading to its first-quarter profit halving as the company warned of a larger margin hit due to rising fuel and freight costs – the stock fell the most since the “Black Monday” crash of 1987. Similarly Walmart (WMT US) posted its worst day in 35-years after posting a disappointing earnings report primarily being pressured by rising cost of labour and shipping.
MM is bullish towards WMT
MM is neutral to positive Walmart
MM is bullish WMT US and depressed retail stocks more generally
MM can see further downside for WMT
MM likes WMT around $US120
Since its founding in 1962, Walmart has become the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally (including 4,600 namesake locations on its home turf and another 600 Sam's Club outlets) and growing its e-commerce presence, attracting 270 million customers weekly. In aggregate, the firm posted more than $713 billion in fiscal 2026 sales. Its core operations span three reporting segments: Walmart US (68% of fiscal 2026 sales), Walmart International (19%), and Sam's Club (13%).Within the US, nearly 60% of its $486 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue came from its grocery offerings, with another quarter from general merchandise. Internationally, Walmart's operations are concentrated in Mexico, though it also has budding exposure to India.
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