Transurban Group (TCL)
TCL $14.24
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Performance
Share price activity
- Last (Price)
- 14.24
- Change
- ▲ 0.08 (0.53)
- Bid / Ask
- 14.23 - 14.24
- Volume
- 710,592
- Turnover
- 10,097,275
- Open
- 14.21
- Day Range
- 14.11 - 14.26
- VWAP
- 14.21
- Prev Close
- 14.16
- Last Trade
- 04/11 12:40pm
Key information
- Sector
- Industrials
- Shares Issued
- 3,120,552,079
- NTA/Share
- -3.40
- Last Dividend
- 0.35
- Dividend Ex Date
- 29 JUN 2026
- Dividend Pay Date
- 18 AUG 2026
Current (AUD) · FY2026
- Revenue
- 3,895.00
- EBITDA
- 2,311.00
- Profit
- 366.00
- Earnings Per Share (EPS)
- 0.12
- Dividend Per Share (DPS)
- 0.69
- Yield %
- 5.03
- Market Cap
- 44,413.36
- Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E)
- 121.62
Estimates (AUD) · FY2027
- Revenue
- 4,350.20
- EBITDA
- —
- Profit
- 276.19
- Earnings Per Share (EPS)
- 0.09
- Dividend Per Share (DPS)
- 0.72
Quantitative rating
Fairly valued
- Economic Moat
- Wide
- Financial Health
- Strong
- Uncertainty
- Medium
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Fair value estimate
Five-star price 12.22 Fair value 14.18 One-star price 16.47
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Quantitative valuation
- Fair Value
- 14.18
- Price / Fair Value
- 0.96
- Valuation
- Fairly valued
- Uncertainty
- Medium
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (12.22) to the one-star price (16.47).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 13.71 |
| Price - 12 month high | 15.62 |
| Price - 12 month low | 12.82 |
| Pricing date | 28 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 5.25 |
| Market capitalization | 42,790.39 |
| 12 Month High price date | 12 JUN 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 29 SEP 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 5.22 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 0.37% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -6.86% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -1.08% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -2.42% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -8.84% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -3.52% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 5.71% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.117 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.117 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.115 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 1.250 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 1.250 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.475 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 2.475 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | -3.396 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | -3.396 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.660 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.660 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.564 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.564 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.690 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.742 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.117 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.117 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.117 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.117 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.428 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 117.18 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 119.47 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 10.97 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | — |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 32.00 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 24.31 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 5.54 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 353.02 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 86.82 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 19,227.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 18,580.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 3.94% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 4.96% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 5.03% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 1,335.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 246.88% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 262.70% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 216.85% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 223.76% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 1,335.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 3,895.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 3,895.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 2,311.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 2,311.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 353.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 353.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 366.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 366.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 343.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.11 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 11.09% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 11.09% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 30.04% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 30.04% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 9.06% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 9.06% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 24.71% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 3.07% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 14.12% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 34.27% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 5.52% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 1.25% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 1.25% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 5.05% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 5.05% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 0.62% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 2.12% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 6.18% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | -37.18% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 5.96% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 3.63% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | -2.15% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | 77.28% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | -7.97% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | -16.59% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 8.60% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
Opinion
Transurban (ASX: TCL) $14.60
Infrastructure stocks are relatively scarce on the ASX, particularly businesses with the scale, asset quality and inflation-linked revenue profile of Transurban (TCL). The company owns a portfolio of difficult-to-replicate toll roads across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and North America, with traffic growth and contracted toll increases supporting a relatively dependable and growing distribution.
Transurban Group (TCL) $13.81
Transurban (TCL) has been an investor favourite over the years but it has traded sideways since COVID while only delivering a ~4.6% unfranked yield. The Toll Road Operator has been a beneficiary of the safety bid over recent years, but its hard to get excited about this large infrastructure company around $14, although the stock is trading on the cheaper side of its historical valuation.
Transurban (TCL) 13.88
Transurban (TCL) -2.2%: All largely inline with expectations – mildly stronger EBITDA and traffic, while distribution guidance remains unchanged.
Transurban Group (TCL) $14.27
Toll road operator TCL has been a beneficiary of the safety bid over the last year, but as it posts new 18-month highs, we believe it's fully priced from a relative valuation perspective, with fewer rate cuts expected over the coming year (s) and its safety bid set to run out of steam - from a pure defensive yield perspective we prefer APA Group.
Transurban Group (TCL) $14.55
TCL gained +1.7% on Thursday, posting fresh 16-month highs after the toll road operator maintained its dividend guidance and announced an expected $50mn in annualised cost saving – the laying off of 300 workers following a workforce review caught the headlines.
Transurban Group (TCL) $12.92
Toll road operator TCL is the most covered and arguably loved stock of today's three, although it hasn’t moved since COVID. This month, the company provided an out-of-cycle traffic update showing Group traffic up +3.6% in Oct-Nov YoY with growth in North America +6.4%, followed by Sydney 4.7% and Brisbane +3.0%, while Melbourne returned to positive +2.0%
Transurban (TCL) $13.05
TCL -1.58%: On a rough day across the board, the roads and tollway business fell slightly more than the market, as commentary and September quarter results were delivered at the AGM.
Transurban Group (TCL) $13.14
In FY24, toll road operator TCL grew traffic by +1.7%, and underlying free cash flow (FCF) by +8.2%. This was a solid result, but traffic volumes remain on the softer side of expectations, and growth in Westconnex is still proving difficult. The stock's forecast yield ~ of 4.7% isn’t compelling, with term deposits still at similar levels.
Transurban (TCL) $12.78
Solid, yet uninspiring result from TCL, with traffic volumes on the softer side and growth in Westconnex still proving difficult.
Action
MM is cautiously bullish towards TCL around $13.50
MM remains neutral on TCL ~$14.60
MM remains neutral towards TCL
MM remains neutral TCL ~$14
MM is neutral towards TCL around $14.30
MM is cautiously bullish TCL around $14.50
MM likes TCL as a defensive play
MM remains neutral toward TCL
MM is neutral toward TCL
MM is neutral TCL ~$13.00
Business Summary
Transurban Group is an owner/operator of toll roads in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane. It also owns toll roads in Virginia, USA, and Montreal, Canada. The weighted average concession life across the portfolio is more than 25 years. Australian assets contribute around 80% of proportional revenue.
Lead Portfolio Manager James Gerrish talking Transurban (TCL), AGL Energy (AGL) & NEXTDC (NXT)
Recorded 10am Wed 12th April
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