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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 2.77 Fair value 3.51 One-star price 4.45
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (2.77) to the one-star price (4.45).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 3.94 |
| Price - 12 month high | 4.80 |
| Price - 12 month low | 2.88 |
| Pricing date | 29 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 0.30 |
| Market capitalization | 376.41 |
| 12 Month High price date | 7 AUG 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 21 NOV 2025 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 0.31 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 3.14% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -9.01% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 5.91% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 12.89% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 22.36% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 7.36% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 20.86% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.110 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.110 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.198 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 5.201 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 5.201 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.363 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 0.363 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.039 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 0.039 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.384 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.384 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.427 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.427 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.160 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.372 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.110 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.110 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.110 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.110 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.391 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 35.82 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 19.94 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 0.76 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 101.82 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 10.09 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 9.22 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 10.86 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 35.82 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 28.82 |
| Net Debt, LFI | -50.54 |
| Net Debt, LFY | -19.43 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 4.23% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 4.06% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 38.35 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 26.55% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 50.43% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 22.35% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 35.56% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 38.35 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 510.61 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 510.61 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 36.52 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 36.52 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 18.65 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 18.65 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 11.17 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 11.17 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 18.65 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 19.40 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.20 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 2.19% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 2.19% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 4.30% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 4.30% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 3.65% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 3.65% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | -0.53% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | -2.45% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 6.87% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 7.51% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | -3.23% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 5.54% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 5.54% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 21.67% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 21.67% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | -6.34% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | -14.39% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | -8.02% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 27.07% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | -6.50% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 1.53% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | -26.54% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | -42.19% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 9.58% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
KGN -15.22% out with a 1H25 trading update which was ahead of expectations in terms of gross sales, through eanrings (EBITDA) was around a ~7% miss due to a combination of increased marketing spend and apparently now resolved, implementation and technology challenges associated with Mighty Ape marketplace and loyalty.
The e-commerce business delivered its 3rd quarter trading update last week, which sent shares tumbling, falling more than 40% from recent highs just 7 weeks ago. Kogan.com has been making significant steps over the last ~24 months to improve the business, running inventory levels down and driving improved margins through various measures. Even until the HY update in Feb, including the January trading update, these measures had been effective, however, there seems to have been a significant shift for the rest of the quarter that caused a notable slowdown in underlying performance.
KGN +23.69%: Stormed higher today after announcing 1H24 results that had largely been pre-released, however, new information was incrementally positive with January trading showing they’re well ahead of consensus for the 2H (i.e. upgrades to come). Same time last year, EBITDA was running at $1.5m, they’re currently running at $4.9m.
KGN +14.87%: today’s trading update from e-commerce retailer Kogan was a positive one highlighting how far the business has turned around in ~12 months despite facing consumer headwinds. Gross sales are expected to fall 5.6% vs 1HFY23, thanks in part to a shift towards platform sales.
Another picture that tells a thousand tales is that of KGN which has been smashed post-COVID for a number of factors, the main one being management’s decision to extrapolate COVID demand out forever, prompting big increases in inventory. As demand tapered off as more normal trends re-emerged, the inventory was a real headache, and this led to discounting, higher costs...
KGN +50.16%: shares in eCommerce business Kogan.com surged to 3-month highs today on the back of better-than-expected performance in the business. Sales for FY22 are expected to come in marginally above the prior year, beating out expectations of a fall from the COVID-supported growth of FY21. While sales are up, EBTIDA is expected to fall to...
MM are selling Kogan (KGN) & buying Shaver Shop (SSG) in the Emerging Companies Portfolio
While Kogan is currently showing a paper profit of 17%, it has now fallen more than 60% from late-2020 highs and now languishes near 6 month lows. There is a tidal wave of money in consumers savings accounts across the country, some retailers will see more of it than others as we head into Christmas. A recent survey showed consumers are flocking to....
Arguably a more speculative play in the sector is KGN which has endured a tough 12-months on stock and supply chain issues to name a couple. We are already long in our Emerging Companies Portfolio from much lower levels but we can easily see a recovery back towards $14 plus an 8.7% short position leaves plenty of room for a squeeze over the coming weeks / months.
Still too soon to buy KGN ~$5, we think
MM remains neutral KGN despite the pullback
MM is now neutral KGN after a great run
MM has turned Neutral/Bullish KGN
MM is neutral/negative KGN
MM thinks KGN is now ‘interesting’ around $3.00
A better than feared sales update from KGN
MM are selling KGN in the Emerging Companies Portfolio, taking a profit around $9.13
MM is neutral/ negative KGN, intending to switch into SSG.
MM likes the risk / reward towards KGN around $11
Kogan.com Ltd is an Australia-based eCommerce company. The Company operates through two segments: Kogan.com and Mighty Ape. The Kogan.com segment is an online retailer selling Exclusive Brands products, such as Kogan, Ovela, Fortis, Ergolux and Komodo, and Third-Party Brands products. It also offers the Kogan FIRST membership and earns platform-based revenue from marketplace seller fees, advertising fees and commissions on mobile, internet, insurance, energy, credit card and travel services. The Mighty Ape segment is an online specialist retailer of gaming and entertainment products in New Zealand, offering the PRIMATE subscription, a marketplace, and commission-based mobile, travel and insurance services. The Company's brands also include Dick Smith, Matt Blatt and Brosa.
James Gerrish discusses online retail in the wake of Googles results
Released Wednesday 28th April
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