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Undervalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 3.76 Fair value 4.17 One-star price 4.63
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (3.76) to the one-star price (4.63).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 3.89 |
| Price - 12 month high | 4.42 |
| Price - 12 month low | 3.37 |
| Pricing date | 29 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 4.79 |
| Market capitalization | 6,548.07 |
| 12 Month High price date | 11 JUN 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 5 NOV 2025 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 7.45 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 1.30% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -8.04% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -6.27% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 1.30% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 13.41% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 6.58% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 6.58% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.211 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.211 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.241 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 2.427 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 2.427 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.340 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 2.340 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.271 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 2.271 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.076 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.076 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.663 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.663 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.230 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.736 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.211 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.211 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.211 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.211 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.226 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 18.44 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 16.13 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 1.60 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 1.71 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 17.21 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 5.86 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.66 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 24.89 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 17.06 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 5,158.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 5,501.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 5.15% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 6.04% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 5.91% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 388.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 136.58% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 142.90% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 99.54% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 125.69% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 388.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 4,166.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 4,166.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 1,264.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 1,264.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 527.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 527.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 362.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 362.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 584.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 414.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.24 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 8.69% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 8.69% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 22.42% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 22.42% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 12.65% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 12.65% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 21.99% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 15.72% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 11.61% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 9.31% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 10.78% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 3.11% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 3.11% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 8.93% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 8.93% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 3.70% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 9.40% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 7.07% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | -11.58% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 2.01% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 8.92% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 6.61% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | 12.05% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 0.15% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 7.85% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | -1.18% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
AZJ: -10.34%: The freighter put out a largely in-line FY26 result, though the market instead focussed on a softer FY27 outlook for its coal haulage business. As we flagged ahead of the result, FY26 was relatively well understood and the key question was whether growth elsewhere could offset pressure on coal volumes – today’s guidance suggests that task will be harder than hoped.
Rail freight operator AZJ’s core businesses are resilient cash generators with the stock still forecast to yield almost 5%, part franked over the coming 12-months. One factor putting off many investors is coal's effective contribution to group revenue being 55–60%. The coal exposure is structural; Aurizon operates the Central Queensland Coal Network (CQCN), the world's largest coal rail network, under a regulated access regime.
Rail freight operator AZJ’s core businesses are resilient cash generators; however, we think their bulk and container strategies remain unproven. The stock has been a painful “yield-trap’ over recent years, however, as the scale of investment slows down and the balance sheet stabilises after a period of lower payout
AZJ -8.84%: Fell on a weak FY24 result, particularly in terms of the two that count – profit and dividend. NPAT +11% to $406m but a 10% miss to consensus of $452m) FY24 full year DPS 17cpsm and 11% miss to consensus of 19cps (7.3cps final dividend 60% franked) FY25 Guidance was soft, expecting EBITDA of $1,660-1,740m , 3% below consensus They did announce a buy back, up to $150m
Freight company AZJ saw its shares advance +3.19% after it reported a 26% increase in earnings for 1H24 and reiterated FY EBITDA guidance of between $1.59 and $1.68bn. AZJ will pay a 9.7c part-franked dividend later this month, with capital initiatives a possibility as coal haulage volumes pick up and the company's balance sheet strengthens.
AZJ’s shares rallied by the most in 2-months yesterday on very high volume after being raised to overweight at Jarden Securities with a $3.90 target – it’s almost there already! This solid-yielding stock will declare its next dividend in 2 months, with estimates for the stock to yield 4.6% over the next 12 months. We may consider this rail freight company once its growth strategy starts to deliver.
Rail freight company AZJ has fallen -11.3% so far this year courtesy of disappointing 1H23 result - Underlying EBITDA came in 10% below consensus at $673m with the miss mostly attributed to weather disruption across all segments and slower-than expected growth in bulks.
QLD-based rail freight company Aurizon (AZJ) fell -6.5% on Monday after disappointing investors with their 1H23 earnings and downgrade to FY23 guidance, the board blamed the 50% fall in its interim net profit to $130mn on wet weather.
AZJ -3.47%: The rail haulage business fell today following their FY22 results plus they painted a weaker picture for FY23. They reported underlying earnings before interest & tax (EBIT) from continuing operations of $875.3 million, down -3.1% for the year but marginally above the markets expectations for $866.9 million. The final dividend per share of 10.9c...
Rail freight business AZJ fell with the market in June losing its protection as a defensive play which helped it through most of 2022, the stocks reasonably priced trading on 14x for 2022 but its projected yield above 6% over the next 12-months is arguably the most eye-catching of its financials – its forecast to pay an 11c part franked dividend in August. The company has been a stable yield play through good and bad times and under $4 it’s looking good from a risk/reward perspective.
MM remains cautiously bullish AZJ
MM is cautiously bullish towards AZJ around $4.25
MM are neutral toward AZJ
MM remains neutral AZJ
MM is bullish towards AZJ this FY
MM is neutral to slightly bullish AZJ around $3.70
MM is neutral AZJ around $3.30
MM is neutral AZJ around $3.50
MM likes AZJ ~$3.80 as a defensive holding
MM likes AZJ into current weakness
Aurizon operates rail haulage of coal, iron ore, and freight, and owns a regulated rail network in Queensland. Coal haulage from mine to port contributes a third of operating income. The noncoal bulk segment contributes less than 15% of earnings and undertakes the rail haulage of agricultural, mining, and industrial products. The rail network, composed of 2,670 kilometers of coal rail network under a 99-year lease from the Queensland government, contributes half of earnings.
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