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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 15.32 Fair value 20.89 One-star price 28.50
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (15.32) to the one-star price (28.50).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 25.41 |
| Price - 12 month high | 30.11 |
| Price - 12 month low | 15.06 |
| Pricing date | 29 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 0.40 |
| Market capitalization | 2,549.64 |
| 12 Month High price date | 26 AUG 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 2 APR 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 0.38 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 0.04% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 3.29% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 37.20% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -0.35% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -2.98% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 17.37% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 3.33% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.403 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.403 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.521 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 5.488 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 5.488 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.404 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 2.404 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.224 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 2.224 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.550 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 1.550 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.642 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.642 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.336 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.968 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.404 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.404 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | -0.266 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | -0.266 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.075 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 63.00 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 48.77 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 4.63 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 11.43 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 337.52 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 39.56 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 10.57 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 195.04 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 60.74 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 133.17 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 284.22 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 1.31% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 1.32% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 7.57 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 170.26% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 180.72% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 96.72% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 103.45% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 7.57 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 551.75 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 551.75 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 97.33 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 97.33 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 59.97 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 59.97 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | -26.70 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | -26.70 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 69.28 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 53.40 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.52 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 7.36% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 7.36% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 11.26% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 11.26% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 10.87% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 10.87% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | — |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 1.37% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 5.20% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 5.20% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 12.40% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 12.40% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | — |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | — |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | — |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | — |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | — |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
GYG +11.39%: GYG delivered a better-than-feared FY26 result and, importantly, a strong start to FY27. Exiting the US has also removed a major distraction, with the focus now shifting to a very attractive Australian store rollout story.
In 2024 Guzman y Gomez (GYG) was the IPO everyone wanted a piece off, we were bearish above $40, leaving the stock alone. The forward blended P/E of +90x remains lofty for the fast-food goliath, though it has halved from ~240x at listing, with investors now paying a little less for solid growth and momentum in store rollouts, though clearly the market isn’t convinced on the numbers just yet based on recent price action. Last months 1H result saw the stock fall ~14% as sales momentum slowed, with Australian comparable sales coming in at +4.4%, from the +9.4% a year ago.
GYG –13.94%: Hit hard today on a softer 1H result – while headline profit and revenue grew, the market focused on slowing sales momentum.
GYG -2.26%: Shares soared +26% in early trade after the AFR reported a $100bn buy-back before later clarifying it was $100m – bit of a difference, bringing shares back down to Earth before ending the day lower.
It’s been over a year since GYG IPO’d on the ASX, to a lot of fanfare, and it initially performed very strongly, more than doubling from the IPO price of $22 that many called “expensive” at the time. The stock hit a high of ~$45 in February; however, it’s been one-way traffic since.
The Mexican fast food chain has been on our radar since they IPO’d in June 2024 at $22. It was a hot listing of a very good company with a strong growth outlook. Shares hit a $46 peak in February; however, they’ve been on the skids since, returning to the level they closed at on the day of their initial listing.
GYG –14.25%: Hit today on lower restaurant margins which weighed slightly on earnings;
Goldman Sachs made a big call in the fast-food space on Thursday: “Sell Guzman (GYG) and Buy Collins Food (CKF), or in junk food terms, sell Mexican and buy KFC. As has often been the case in 2024, their thesis was around relative valuations, with the hot new IPO GYG certainly looking rich to MM anywhere near $40
MM remains bullish toward GYG
MM is neutral towards GYG around $19.
MM remains neutral towards GYG
MM is neutral toward GYG
MM is neutral GYG ~$26, though we do think plenty of the hot money has now left
MM is interested in GYG, but will await August results.
MM is adding GYG to our Emerging Companies Hit List
MM is neutral towards GYG at best
MM is neutral GYG
Guzman y Gomez is a Mexican-inspired quick-service restaurant operator and franchisor. Most stores are in Australia. Underpinning the company's growth outlook is an ambitious plan to reach a network of more than 1000 Australian stores overthe next 20-plus years. At the end of fiscal 2026, its footprint stood at a around 250. Guzman also has a presence in Singapore and Japan through master franchise agreements.
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