US Recession Probability Forecast

04/09/2025

US Recession Probability Forecast

Subscribe to Market Matters Blog

Latest Reports

Afternoon report 16/03/2026

The Match out: ASX dips ahead of RBA rate call tomorrow

The ASX 200 fell as a broad sell-off in the mining sector overwhelmed a solid showing from defensives and financials. Six of eleven sectors finished higher, but that didn't matter much when the heavyweights were doing the damage. Gold miners were hit as bullion continued to slide following two consecutive weeks of declines. Iron ore stocks also weighed after China's state-backed trader eased restrictions on BHP ore grades — partially unwinding last week's fear-driven rally as fresh data showed Chinese steel output fell 3.6% in the first two months of the year.

Morning report 16/03/2026

Macro Monday: Gulf War sustains $US100 oil, weighing on stocks

The worst oil supply disruption in history shows little sign of easing, keeping crude elevated since the Iran conflict began as Trump and Iran’s new leader signal little appetite for de-escalation. Washington has allowed more sanctioned Russian crude to flow in an attempt to cap prices, but markets are increasingly concerned that Trump & Co may have bitten off more than they can chew, particularly with US mid-term elections looming in November.