Forecasted Path of US interest rates

27/10/2025

Forecasted Path of US interest rates

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Morning report 01/12/2025

Macro Monday: The RBA weighs on the ASX compared to its peers

The expected policy path of central banks, especially the RBA and the Fed, has been the main driver of the ASX’s relative performance in recent weeks. The chart below of US and Australian short-dated bond yields illustrates the divergence that weighed on local risk assets - Australian 3-year bond yields increased ~0.5% from their recent lows while the US 2s edged down towards fresh multi-year lows.

Weekend report 29/11/2025

Weekend Q&A: Rate cut optimism in the US drives stocks higher

The ASX 200 bounced back +2.4% last week following dovish comments from several Fed members. Gains were broad-based, with tech, materials, healthcare, and the industrial sectors all advancing by over 4%; only the Energy sector failed to advance. This week's rise on the ASX came despite Wednesday's higher-than-expected local inflation figures, which prompted speculation from some that the RBA may hike interest rates next year. Even so, the future path of Australian interest rates remains debated, and some market economists maintain the RBA could still cut rates from today's level of 3.6% - MM believes there will be no change, just plenty of speculation until 2027.