Nuix (NXL) $3.99
We covered NXL earlier in the month here post a soft trading update that saw the stock “hit for six”. At that time, we added NXL to our Hitlist for the Emerging Companies Portfolio, but we’re yet ready to hit the buy button.
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Undervalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 13 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 1.99 Fair value 2.43 One-star price 2.95
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 13 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 13 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (1.99) to the one-star price (2.95).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 1.65 |
| Price - 12 month high | 2.27 |
| Price - 12 month low | 1.07 |
| Pricing date | 12 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 1.18 |
| Market capitalization | 565.13 |
| 12 Month High price date | 25 AUG 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 13 APR 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 1.40 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -0.60% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 15.03% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 17.92% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -14.55% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -19.36% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -8.36% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -3.52% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.050 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.050 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.050 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 0.785 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 0.785 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.924 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 0.924 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.246 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 0.246 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.206 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.206 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.177 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.177 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.000 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.188 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.050 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.050 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.050 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.050 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.170 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 32.90 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 32.90 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 2.09 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 6.70 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 9.66 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 9.30 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.78 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 56.55 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 30.08 |
| Net Debt, LFI | -35.64 |
| Net Debt, LFY | -29.31 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | — |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 0.00% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 57.06 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 12.11% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 12.97% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 6.45% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 7.31% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 57.06 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 263.21 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 263.21 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 63.12 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 63.12 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 13.53 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 13.53 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 16.45 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 16.45 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 13.53 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.05 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 6.25% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 6.25% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 6.72% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 6.72% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 5.14% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 5.14% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | -3.00% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | -2.79% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 0.78% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 21.68% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | -2.73% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 3.80% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 3.80% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 5.44% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 5.44% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | -0.67% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | -0.89% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 8.37% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 5.65% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 12.99% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 0.86% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | -42.48% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 17.23% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
We covered NXL earlier in the month here post a soft trading update that saw the stock “hit for six”. At that time, we added NXL to our Hitlist for the Emerging Companies Portfolio, but we’re yet ready to hit the buy button.
NXL call themselves a ‘force for good’ in the world of data. Essentially, they have investigative analytics and intelligence software used by law enforcement, legal firms, and corporations to transform huge amounts of unstructured data into actionable insights with speed, scalability, and forensic accuracy.
Shares in NXL were clobbered after their recent trading update at their AGM. While they reiterated their FY25 outlook for all key targets, the market focused on the comment that “sales are not linear over the course of the year, and our current expectations are that growth will be weighted towards the second half of the fiscal year.”
NXL is a company with a storied (relatively short) history on the ASX, listing in December of 2020 at an IPO price of $5.31, having raised $400m through Macquarie, and was one of the hottest IPOs of the year. Shares were above $12 by January 2021, but things started to unravel.
NXL -11.57%: the data analytics software company gave back some recent strength today despite a 1H result that reads well. The company came in at the top end or above recent guidance for the half, however, the market wanted more given the stock’s ~30% gain in recent weeks.
The data analytics software company hit two-year highs last week; however, the stock has already fallen ~20% following a trading update released on Friday the 12th. The update, in our view, was more positive than the market has given the stock credit for and looks to be another data point that shows the progress that the company has made after a few lean years with multiple distractions.
The investigative data analytics company hit a 3-month high last week on the back of a big upgrade to FY23 guidance after the year-end. The company will release its FY23 report on August 18 and expects to report a ~15% increase in Annualized Contract Value (ACV) and a 51-61% increase in Underlying EBITDA.
NXL -11.72%: shares in the investigative analytics company struggled on the day of their AGM after a disappointing trading update for the start of FY22. Nuix has seen revenue for the first four months up 10% but EBITDA fall 27% as wage costs bite. More concerningly, Annualized Contract Value (ACV) is currently flat on FY21 suggesting we shouldn’t expect...
This MM portfolio added +4.26% last week compared to the index which only gained +1.29%, we enjoyed strong performances from Crown Resorts (CWN), OZ Minerals (OZL), Independence Group (IGO), Xero (XRO), a2 Milk (A2M) and HUB24 (HUB) while IAG Insurance (IAG) was the only major drag across our holdings.
In September we saw the following 4 stocks removed from the ASX200 – G8 Education (GEM), NRW Holdings (NWH), Nuix Ltd (NXL) and Westgold Resources (WGX). A great rule of thumb when investing is a really good reason is required to go against the trend and buy a stock dropping out of the ASX200, however there are exceptions as there tends to be right across the investment landscape.
MM needs more evidence of a sustainable turnaround at NXL
MM remains keen on NXL for the Emerging Companies Portfolio
MM is bullish NXL ~$4.50, & it remains on the Hitlist for the Emerging Companies Portfolio
MM likes NXL under $5.50
MM likes under $5.50
MM is now interested in NXL ~$6 following recent weakness
MM is bullish NXL, on the radar for the Emerging Companies portfolio ~10% lower.
MM is bullish NXL
MM is now bullish NXL ~$1.15
MM in neutral NXL here, watching an opportunity to ‘buy the facts’
Nuix Ltd is a provider of investigative analytics and intelligence software which empowers organisations to simply and quickly find meaningful insights from large amounts of unstructured data. It offers a software platform (Nuix platform) comprising a powerful proprietary data processing engine (Nuix Engine) and several software applications. The company's segments are Software, and Services. Majority of revenue comes from Software segment. It has presence in Asia Pacific, Americas, and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA). Majority of revenue comes from Americas. the company's industries are Regulators, Financial Services, Government, Telecommunications, Pharmaceutical, and Energy. Its products are Nuix Neo Foundation, Data Breach Notifications, Early Case Assessment, CSAM, etc.
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