Market Matters Q&A

MA2HA

Apologies guys but can you please advise your latest thoughts on MA2HA. Think you have addressed this one over time – but your latest thoughts pls.
Cheers

Matt

Why does the market keep repeating the (almost) same pattern each year?

Hi

In Monday’s morning note you wrote about how the market tends to (mostly) follow a pattern of strength and weakness throughout the year, being strong some months and weaker in others (eg April and July usually strong, September is often weak, then a Santa rally in December). Is there any logical reason for this “pattern” or does the market just feed on previous years patterns and repeat the same thing as some sort of subconscious habit?

Cheers, Carl

Carl

Uranium (US$/lb)

I note with interest in your Q&A, there is often an interest in a uranium stock like Paladin. There is also Cameco in your International portfolio.
As I understand it, your thesis about a very supportive (though volatile) position with uranium is;
Large supply side shortfall after many years in doldrums,
Strong demand in China & India for energy,
Strong growth in AI energy needs, particularly low emissions.
However while there has been price growth over 2-3 years, shares and uranium spot prices have not managed to fully and consistently grow their values. (Sure they’re better but not great).
Is there another element to the shortage of supply side story? eg are there uranium mines mothballed or ready to produce that will force prices down. Does the ‘green’ lobby still strongly say that nuclear is bad theory?

Or is there another piece of the puzzle to consider?
Where is MM on this story?
Thanks Glenn

Glenn

The psychology of investing

James, I don’t usually write empty praises, just to win favours or encourage you, but reading your reply to “The psychology of investing” almost perfectly described me. After about 40 years of trading/investing on the ASX, at the age of 88, I still find it difficult to except a losing decision, and crystallize the loss, by selling it. Consequently, I hold some stock, like WTC, with large losses. I tell myself, management private behavior, should not influence the share price. The market says otherwise. I know about fighting the tape, but…
When I do sell a stock, even for a very small profit, I do feel elated.
My other problem area is selling high dividend paying shares. I suspect, many other subscriber feels the same. The best example is GQG. Its price is falling since 2024, but it pays nearly ~11% dividend! … and it pays it 4 times a year. I suspect, they paying it that frequently, to remind everyone “I am high yielding”. I keep asking myself “if I sell GQG, where can I invest this money, showing better than 10%?”. I do ask myself your suggested question “If I did not already own this stock, would I buy it today at the current price?”, but unfortunately, I come up with the wrong answer!
Best regards,
John G

John

Glencore plc (LSE: GLEN)

Hi James,

The Financial Review says Glencore hope to list this year. Given BHP and Rio are heavily weighted iron ore, is Glencore worth buying?

Lindsay

Austral Resources (ASX: AR1) proposed acquisition of Hammer Metal (ASX: HMX)

Hi MM team,

This week we saw a binding proposal from Austral Resources to acquire Hammer Metal, with the proposed consideration being 1.2903 Austral shares for each Hammer share held.

On the surface this appears to be a good strategic purchase for Austral, being logistically close to it’s current copper mines, processing and exploration region in Queensland. Hammer does have a gold mine in Western Australia.

If this acquisition gets across the line, does the pricing seem reasonably for the assets purchased, and will this put Austral in a good position going forward, as it will increase copper and to a lesser extent gold revenue?

Thanks,
Andrew.

Andrew

ASX 200 ETF bar Financials

Hi team, thank you for the recent reports—great job .

I’d like to explore a specific strategy with you. I am looking to invest in an ETF that tracks the ASX but completely excludes the financials sector.

There appears to be no such EFT, I want to get your thoughts on a Synthetic Replication:

Buying a broad Australian shares ETF (like VAS) while simultaneously shorting the Financials Sector ETF (like QFN)? Is this a viable approach, or is there a simpler way to achieve this exposure?

Or should I just buy ASX- MVW as solution for reducing financial sector concentration?

I would appreciate your analysis of these ideas.

Regards

Michael

Michael

Gemlife Communities Group (ASX: GLF) and ARB Corp (ASX: ARB)

Dear MM, thanks for your great support. Firstly, I was hoping to get your thoughts on GemLife, GLF. I appreciate that you have Mirvac in both your income and growth portfolios. I was wondering about GLF as an alternative (or an addition) to MGR for growth, with no real dividend – it isn’t (as yet) an income stock. Secondly, I was hoping you could provide an update on ARB. Other than as appearing as a Shawn’s Trading Idea, it has been a few months. Both stocks are interest rate sensitive, and we’re all hoping interest rates have peaked or are close to peaking,
Many thanks Mark

Mark

BetaShares Australian High Interest Cash ETF (ASX: AAA)

Hi Team,

You recently covered AAA as a place to park spare cash. When does income start and end and for what period? How does income get paid ? Why does the security price move ? What is a comparable risk rating for AAA vs eg a Bank Bond? Are there any catches to using AAA ?

Thanks,
Simon

Simon

Cuscal Ltd (ASX: CCL)

Hi, do you have any research/ opinion on this ASX stock?

Mark