Morning Report Thursday 16 April 2015
After Iron Ore, the vast majority of questions I have received recently have been focused around “where is the market?” and “should I be selling around 6000?” After 43 trading days of “treading water” between 5740 and 5997, a decent move from the ASX200 is clearly overdue – see chart 1.
• For March / April combined, the average return for the banks is +5.7% since the 45 day rule was introduced during the Hawke / Keating government. However, currently we are only up 1.7%.
Tops are generally the hardest inflexion points in a market to identify and this may be no exception. I remain positive equities for April, targeting a break towards 6100, but I currently believe this will represent an excellent selling opportunity. I will maintain this view unless the ASX200 closes under 5890 where I will become neutral / negative. I like to focus on clear chart patterns to formulate my overall market interpretation – the majority of charts look like a spider, after too much wine, walked in the ink and danced across the page! The clearest local sector to me at present is the REITs:
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