- There will be no MM report on Mondays Public Holiday.
The ASX 200 finished a volatile week up +0.2%, almost as if Thursdays ~2% plunge to fresh four month lows didn’t exist. The weekly change masked significant volatility as investors digested the RBA’s fourth rate hike of 2026 alongside softer-than-expected inflation data. Technology was the standout sector, surging 7.3%, while the dominant theme remained interest rates, with the cash rate reaching a 15-year high of 4.6%, although softer CPI and Governor Bullock’s subsequent comments tempered expectations for further tightening.
- The market followed our roadmap through the week triggering buy signals on Friday, if we’re correct the index should test 9000 in the coming months.
The best and worst-performing stocks last week were again an eclectic bunch with tech the standout on the positive side of the ledger while the lithium names were again evident amongst the underperformers.
Winners: Codan (ASX: CDA) +29%, DATA#3 (ASX: DTL) +23%, Megaport (ASX: MP1) +14%, DroneShield (ASX: DRO) +13%, Elsight (ASX: ELS) +12%, PDI Gold (ASX: PDI) +10%, Lendlease (ASX: LLC) +10%, Northern Star (ASX: NST) +9%, and SEEK (ASX: SEK) +8%.
Losers: Develop Global (ASX: DVP) -18%, Liontown (ASX: LTR) -15%, IperionX (ASX: IPX) -13%, Elevra Lithium (ASX: ELV) -13%, Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR) -13%, Cochlear (ASX: COH) -12%, Vulcan Energy (ASX: VUL) -12%, and Lynas Resources (ASX: LYC) -9%.
Weekly snapshot: Last was busy on the news and market front despite the ultimately small +0.2% gain:
- On Tuesday the RBA hiked rates 0.25% as expected to 4.6% but less hawkish comments from the RBA helped the ASX eke out a small gain.
- A weaker than expected CPI inflation print, propelled the market to an almost 1% gain helped RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s less than hawkish commentary.
- The first day of October saw the market hammered 175-points (-2%) for no obvious reason – it felt like overseas selling at the start of the quarter.
- The ASX 200 rallied +0.8% on Friday, triggering a technical buy signal for MM, as the tech sector enjoyed some much needed love.
- Fridays soft US jobs report gave bonds some much needed support, helping the tech-based NASDAQ
In the coming week, markets will be watching the US CPI, 3Q bank earnings and Australian employment data alongside China’s return from Golden Week. US inflation will be the key macro event, with a hot number likely to push bond yields higher reinforcing expectations for further Fed rate hikes, while results from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo should set the early tone for the broader US earnings season. Locally, the Australian jobs numbers will have a large bearing on RBA expectations into Christmas.
Overseas markets enjoyed a strong session to end the week as a soft US Jobs Report saw bond yields fall. In Europe, the EURO STOXX 50 (+1.0%) and German DAX (+1.2%) led the indices higher. In the US, tech-based NASDAQ (+1.0%) and S&P 500 (+0.7%) both embraced some welcome relief from the bond markets.
- The SPI Futures are calling the ASX 200 to open up +0.3% on Monday helped by a ~1% gain by BHP in US trade.
