US Bonds and Australian markets

Hi David,

We don’t believe the world is “abandoning” US bonds, the 30’s have indeed traded up to almost 20-year highs but since Scott Bessent announced the US Treasury would start buying long-dated bonds the 30-year yield has only advanced from 5.2% to 5.4%, not a huge move considering Dec’ Brent Crude has surged ~US16/barrel (18%) at the same time, fuelling inflation fears.

Let’s not forget the sequence of events:

• Bessent/Treasury first announced the larger long-dated bond-buyback program on 19 August 2026, saying purchases of 10- to 30-year Treasuries would “at least” double from $2bn to $4bn per operation, effective from 9 September through 4 November – only 2 days in so far.
• Bessent/Treasury are buying long-dated bonds to support liquidity and, indirectly, put downward pressure on yields. The first enlarged operation was subsequently increased to up to $6bn, announced on 9 September, although the bond market was unimpressed and long-term yields continued higher.

We have no doubt the Treasury will flex its muscles far more in the coming months but while oil keeps rallying their efforts are more akin to containment. If/when a resolution is achieved around the Strait of Hormuz, we believe credit markets will take notice, and yields will be lower come Christmas – bullish for global risk assets.

• Bitcoin is not an asset class MM invests in but it’s moved in sync with Scott Bessent instead of against him.

In the bigger picture we see the US$ trading lower which suggests that in the coming years the Treasury won’t be getting their way, but into Christmas, we’re going old school saying “don’t fight the Fed.”

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US 30-Year Bond Yield

LAST UPDATED 11/09/2026 10:31

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US 30-Year Bond Yield

LAST UPDATED 11/09/2026 10:31