HVN -1.78%: Produced a mixed FY26 result, with headline profit broadly in line but earnings ahead of expectations, showing better earnings resilience than the top line might suggest. The more important read is current trading, where a poor July across most markets has been followed by a decent rebound in Australia during August.
Key results:
- Revenue of A$3.05bn, up 4.5% but well below the A$4.64bn showing in consensus, although this comparison looks distorted by differences in revenue classification.
- EBIT of A$917.0m, up 5.3% and ~5% ahead of A$873.0m expected.
- EBITDA of A$1.18bn, ~2% ahead of A$1.16bn expected.
- Net profit of A$528.5m, up 2% and broadly in line with A$531.0m expected.
- Aggregated sales of A$9.64bn, up 3.1%, including Australian franchisee sales revenue of A$6.58bn.
- EPS of 42.4c, slightly ahead of 41.4c expected.
- Full-year dividend of 27.5cps, essentially in line with 27.7c expected.
The current trading update was less comfortable. Australian comparable sales fell 3.4% in July, alongside weakness in New Zealand and Asia, while the UK was smashed, down -26.8%. Encouragingly, Australian franchisee comparable written sales rebounded 3.8% over the first ~3 weeks of August. With discretionary spending under pressure from higher living costs and interest rates, we’d put more weight on whether that August improvement can persist than the FY26 headline numbers.
MM’s view: There’s enough in this result to suggest HVN’s earnings are holding together better than the consumer backdrop would imply, but July’s trading shows why we’re reluctant to get too excited just yet. August has improved, and if that continues the setup becomes more interesting. HVN doesn’t need a booming consumer to muddle through, but for the stock to really work from here, we’d want evidence that August — rather than July — is the better guide to FY27.
MM is neutral toward HVN
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