After a shaky start to the week, the ASX200 finished with a flourish, rallying 2% on Friday to end the week up 1.4% as risk appetite returned. Following several sessions dominated by geopolitical headlines, the ASX delivered its strongest weekly gain in two months as markets embraced the prospect of a US-Iran peace deal and the accompanying pullback in oil prices, which reversed more than US$10/barrel from their weekly highs.
The gains were driven primarily by rate-sensitive sectors, with Consumer Staples (+9%), Consumer Discretionary (+8%), Healthcare (+7%) and Real Estate (+5%) leading the charge.
The winners’ enclosure was also dominated by recent underperformers as investors went bargain hunting into EOFY, while the laggards had a distinctly gold and uranium flavour.
Winners: Steadfast Group (ASX: SDF) +29%, Tuas Ltd (ASX: TUA) +19%, Megaport (ASX: MP1) +18%, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) +16%, Lendlease (ASX: LLC) +16%, a2 Milk (ASX: A2M) +15%, Reliance Worldwide (ASX: RWC) +15%, and Reece (ASX: REH) +14%.
Losers: Ora Banda (ASX: OBM) -17%, Alcoa (ASX: AAI) -15%, Silex (ASX: SLX) -14%, NexGen (ASX: NXG) -14%, Resolute Mining (ASX: RSG) -13%, NEXTDC (ASX: NXT) -11%, Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) -11%, Pantoro Gold (ASX: PNR) -10%, and Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM) -10%.
The standout feature of the shortened week was the ASX’s resilience. Early weakness repeatedly gave way to buying into the close on several days, with the market grinding higher and ending sessions near intra-day highs — generally bullish price action, or as we often say, the market appears to be getting its “Mojo” back.
- The week began with a difficult session for miners as rate expectations shifted toward a Fed hike in 2026 following a stronger-than-expected US jobs report.
- Consumer stocks led the market higher on Tuesday despite increased hostilities in the Middle East, with optimism remaining firmly intact.
- The Australian dollar hit a two-month low on Wednesday, weighing on resource names as tensions around Iran escalated again.
- Friday delivered a strong finish, with the ASX posting its best session since April and pushing to fresh five-week highs as miners returned to favour.
- SpaceX also dominated headlines on Friday, surging 19% in its market debut following the largest IPO on record. Investors focused less on valuation and more on the prospect of future index inclusion and the potential for passive fund buying to create a near-term technical tailwind.
The week ahead is all about central banks, with the Fed, Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) all making interest rate decisions. The BoJ is expected to hike, while markets will watch commentary from the Fed and BoE closely for clues around the next move.
Domestically, it should be a relatively quiet week for data, allowing attention to shift elsewhere — including the Socceroos’ World Cup campaign, which kicks off on Sunday against Turkey.
Overseas markets were also stronger on Friday night amid improving sentiment around US-Iran negotiations and a strong trading debut by SpaceX. In Europe, the German DAX and French CAC both gained 1.8%. In the US, the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, while the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 added 0.8%.
- SPI Futures are pointing to the ASX200 opening up 0.4% on Monday, with BHP up another $1.30 in US trade.
