WiseTech Global Ltd (WTC)
Given the disruption to global trade & shipping what do you think the impact will be on WTC’s future profitability?
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Answer
Hi Peter,
Global trade and shipping disruption is not purely negative for WiseTech (WTC), because its CargoWise platform is deeply embedded in logistics workflows and disruption often increases the complexity of supply chains—leading to more rerouting, customs processing, and compliance activity. This can lift revenue per shipment and reinforce demand for automation, visibility, and AI-driven logistics tools, strengthening WTC’s positioning.
However, overall trade volumes do matter. If disruptions escalate significantly (e.g. major chokepoints like Hormuz), global shipping activity can slow, with fewer shipments and delays reducing transaction volumes. In the short term, this creates a mixed outcome—higher revenue intensity per shipment but potential pressure from lower overall volumes.
Over the medium to long term, the impact is likely net positive. Persistent disruption drives increased investment in digital infrastructure, deeper platform adoption, and greater reliance on systems like CargoWise. Ultimately, WTC benefits from a world where global trade is more complex and fragmented, making its software more critical and more embedded.
Clearly, WTC has been re-rated materially lower since mid-2025 with potential “AI Disruption Trade” weighing on the stock and sector. However, we believe the current war disruption will cement the need for tried and tested platforms like CargoWise, which we believe is now presenting a compelling value proposition, with WTC now trading more than 50% below its 5-year average valuation.
- The last year has been a tough journey for WTC shareholders, but we continue to see good risk/reward at current levels.
