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Thoughts on New Hope Corp Ltd (NHC)

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Question asked 14/03/2026

Thoughts on New Hope Corp Ltd (NHC)

Hi James and team, Many times have been mentioned WHC on your reports lately, but I would like to know how do you see NHC and how far can it go on your opinion in the very short term with the situation we are facing in the broad energy space. As always thank you so much. Regards, Dario Hi Guys Thanks for your great work! The Iran conflict has affected oil prices, this in turn has pushed up the price of some coal stocks like NHC which is a constituent of MM's Income portfolio. NHC has been sitting well below its entry price (a capital loss) for more than two years. The dividend is not spectacular at 4.9% fully franked according to Commsec. Is now not a good time to sell? Cheers, Nick

Answer

Hi Guys,

Excuse the more regular references to WHC but they are obviously correlated. We’ve held NHC for over 3-years in our Income Portfolio with our position up ~30%, below our average annual return pa for this portfolio but not too bad, with dividends the driver of the return.

We look forward not back with positions, so will never pay attention to entry levels when we consider selling, or indeed adding to a position. In terms of NHC, like WHC, it definitely is on our radar to trim following its advance over the last 12-months, but worth noting both were enjoying strong moves before the attacks on Iran.

NHC: At this stage we can see a test of $6 area, or another ~10% higher.
WHC: At this stage we can see a test of $10.50 area, or another ~10% higher.

While we may trim into further strength, we like the medium term fundamentals in the coal market more than say Oil & Gas. The supply/demand imbalance that was already in play before the conflict remains the reasons why we are likely to stay long the sector, but that’s not to say we won’t use a short term spike to trim.

NHC is more skewed towards Thermal Coal used in power generation than WHC, and they have a more aggressive dividend policy, hence it’s inclusion in the MM Income Portfolio.

At this stage, we see further upside, so we’re holding current weightings for now.

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New Hope Corp Ltd (NHC)

LAST UPDATED 13/03/2026 11:37

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Weekend report 14/03/2026

Weekend Q&A: The US-Iran War continues to take its toll on global markets

The ASX200 ended a choppy week down 2.6%, with the Middle East conflict weighing on equities. Energy was the only sector to finish higher, while rate-sensitive tech (-7%) and real estate (-5%) dragged on the index as surging oil prices reignited inflation fears. The influential materials sector also endured a tough week, retreating -4.7% as weakness in copper and gold stocks offset a bounce in iron ore names. However, the market's largest stock, BHP, weighed heavily on the index, falling 5.7% over the week as a Chinese ban on its iron ore caused increasing angst. The moves on Friday night in the US point to more of the same next week, with gold and copper stocks coming under renewed pressure.

Afternoon report 13/03/2026

The Match Out: ASX drifts lower, down 2.6% for the week

The dominant forces were geopolitical and monetary policy related. The escalating Iran conflict drove oil above $US101/barrel, stoking inflation concerns and cementing market expectations of an RBA rate hike at Tuesday's meeting - markets are pricing an 80% probability by close. That rate repricing drove a sharp rotation: banks were again the standout beneficiaries, with NAB leading at +1.5%, while gold miners came under significant pressure.