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4DMedical Ltd (4DX)- can growth projections be really possible?

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    4DMedical Ltd (4DX)- can growth projections be really possible?

    I have a small holding in 4DX. Taking a few pertinent points from their 19th Jan investor presentation it is easy to understand the perceived value:- CT:VQ product has FDA approval and has reimbursement code for hospitals. The market in the US alone deemed north of $1b annually. The patented imaging software runs on all existing CT scanners so hospitals do not need to buy new or extra hardware. Phillips saleforce contracted to push hard on hospital adoptions And the clincher to me is that their competition requires each patient to inhale a low dose of nuclear contrast material to enable lung performance imaging. All great positives leading to their claim of obtaining a 'mere' 100% of the US market in a short period of time. Has MM ever looked at this and do you think their sales claim is realistic or just another 'promedicus wannabe wrapped inside a glossy investor presentation pitch?! Thanks david

    Answer

    Hi David,

    As you alluded to 4DX develops advanced imaging software to analyse lung function using X-ray and CT scans. Its technology helps clinicians diagnose and monitor respiratory diseases such as COPD, asthma and long-COVID. Their technology enables more accurate, non-invasive lung function imaging from standard scans, helping clinicians diagnose and monitor respiratory diseases earlier and more effectively.

    The business now has a market cap. of ~$2.4bn having soared higher over the last 12-months to enter the ASX200. However, the company only delivered $5.9mn of revenue in FY25 with $30.9mn forecast in FY27, i.e. there’s already plenty of good news baked into this cake.

    At the end of FY25, 4DMedical had ~$17mn in cash after a $10 million strategic investment from Pro Medicus (PME) – a positive read through in our opinion. However, analysts broadly expect the company to become profitable around FY28, assuming adoption of its lung-imaging software accelerates, i.e. there’s plenty of water to go under the bridge and as we’ve witnessed with PME’s more than 65% correction AI sentiment is likely to play a major role in determining the share price.

    • We like 4DX around $4.20 initially targeting ~$5.50 but it’s likely to be a volatile journey.
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