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CSL Ltd (CSL)

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CSL Ltd (CSL)

Hi guys, after CSL's huge drop after its results I've seen a lot of commentators come out saying its a buy. I note that you don't plan to average down but if you weren't holders would you be buying? Notwithstanding some of the uncertainty, its trading at the bottom of its range of the past 5 years and I'm looking for reasons as to why this isn't a screaming buy? All the best, Josh

Answer

Hi Josh,

While we aren’t planning to average our CSL position, we have no plans to exit at this stage. We thought CSL was harshly dealt with after last week’s result:

  • The market appeared to have got long pushing the stock up over 20% into its result.
  • The stock is now trading ~40% below its 5-year average valuation but short-term growth is now off the table.

We reiterate that this wasn’t a particularly bad result, and in relative terms, a good one compared to many this earnings season:

  • The company announced a FY25 profit up 17% to $3.2bn, in line with consensus, after a strong year during which earnings were up 14%, cash flow grew 29%, but the quality was interpreted as average.

The market’s key gripe was the complexity of the result… with restructuring and the spin-out of their vaccine business presenting unknowns – with the initial reaction being ‘too hard’. We’re sitting patiently on the other side of the fence.

If we had no position, we would be considering CSL around $210 but leaving room to average if it tests $200.

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CSL Ltd (CSL)
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