Oil fell to its lowest close for weeks on Friday, undoubtedly making President Trump happy, who is angling for a weaker oil price to offset some of the inflationary pressure from his tariffs. Recent weakness was caused by the possibility of increased flows from Iraq, weakening the prospects of supply constraints that have supported the market recently. Crude has been trapped in a roughly $5 range for the past three weeks because of an uncertain outlook for supply, including increasing expectations that OPEC+ will delay a planned production increase. At the same time, US President Donald Trump’s rapid-fire tariff actions and other policy decisions are weighing on consumer confidence, dimming the outlook for demand.
- We see no reason to second-guess when oil prices will rise meaningfully and sustainably.
MM is neutral toward crude oil
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