The Match Out: ASX up, RBA hold rates, downplays pre-Christmas cut

No change as expected today from the RBA with rates staying at 4.35%. They talked to the pace of disinflation slowing, while they maintained its previous guidance that it was not “ruling anything in or out” when it came to interest rates, the board said policy would need to be “sufficiently restrictive” until the board was confident inflation was “moving sustainably towards the target range”. This view is at odds with the market, Interest rate futures fully pricing in a cut before Christmas as the table below shows (29bps priced in), and an interest rate of ~3.5% by the end of FY25. The new press conference format provided a bit more meat on the bones of this view, and the Governor even had a crack at explaining volatility in equities over the past 48 hours, saying that one employment print in the US shouldn’t have us running for the hills…not bad advice from Governor Bullock!

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Afternoon report 26/08/2025 17:34

The Match Out: ASX loses steam as reporting starts to wind down

The ASX lost some steam today and as we penned this morning, we believe the market is starting to feel tired after its 25% advance from the April lows.

Morning report 26/08/2025 13:00

What Matters Today: Things can get confusing in the Resources Sector

The ASX200 closed up just +0.1% on Monday, after the index surrendered substantial early gains and failed to close above the psychological 9000 level. Selling was most noticeable in the banks, with the financial sector ending the day down 1.2% with 6 of the main boards' 11 main sectors closing lower.

Afternoon report 25/08/2025 17:01

The Match Out: ASX jumps then dumps as profit takers pile in

The ASX opened with a bang this morning hitting a high of 9054 before sellers got engaged, pushing the index down ~70pts from the early high. While the structure of the market still remains clearly bullish, we stick with our more neutral bias on stocks around all-time highs, and today's selling into strength, supports that view.

Morning report 25/08/2025 09:28

Macro Monday: Jerome Powell set to propel the ASX to new highs

Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his much-anticipated speech from Jackson Hole on Friday to signal that the US central bank is on track for an interest-rate cut in September, after holding its benchmark steady in the first eight months of the year. The market reaction was instantaneous, with Powell unleashing the biggest cross-market surge since April by striking a surprisingly dovish tone during his speech. The S&P 500 Index rebounded from a five-day slide, rising +1.5%; meanwhile, the rate/economically-sensitive Russell 2000 small-cap index surged almost 4%.

Weekend report 23/08/2025 08:53

Weekend Q&A: The Bull ASX200 cracks 9000 as volatility erupts on the stock level

The ASX200 fell away on Friday to close down 0.6%, with the heavyweight miners and banks largely reversing early gains to close lower. The index still managed to end the week up +0.3%, but it failed to hold above the psychological 9000 level, with healthcare, and especially CSL, weighing heavily. The week, as expected, was dominated by the reporting season, with “misses” treated a touch more severely than beats were embraced. However, that’s no major surprise with the index posting all-time highs as often as it rains in Sydney!

Afternoon report 22/08/2025 16:52

The Match Out: Reporting knocks stocks from all-time highs

The market tapered off as the day progressed with the ASX giving back half of yesterday's strong move – as reporting season roles on. More misses than hits today with some big moves playing out as a consequence.

Morning report 22/08/2025 09:25

ETF Friday: Looking into the growing Buffer ETF market

The ASX 200 surged over 100 points on Thursday to close above the 9000 level for the first time, who would have thought back in April? All 11 major sectors closed higher as the bulls got the bit between their teeth, and sellers were very stock-specific.

Afternoon report 21/08/2025 18:07

The Match Out: ASX cracks 9,000 as earnings results fuel all sectors higher

The ASX opened strongly and surged past the 9000 mark for the first time around midday, rallying on the back of broad-based gains as all 11 sectors finished in positive territory. Solid results from Super Retail and Brambles kicked off proceedings with broker upgrades on stocks that have already come through providing more firepower.

Morning report 22/08/2025 14:05

What Matters Today: Three potential landmines to report next week

The ASX200 closed up +0.25% on Wednesday, which was impressive considering James Hardie (JHX) was thumped ~28%, and CSL extended Tuesday's decline by another 2.1%.

Afternoon report 20/08/2025 17:32

The Match Out: Banks do it again, drive ASX up, JHX hit on soft FY26 outlook

The ASX opened weaker but staged a sharp 77-point rally through midday, before easing back in the afternoon as US futures turned lower. Heavy selling in James Hardie and ongoing pressure on CSL weighed on materials and healthcare though strength in the Big Four banks, all up 1-4% more than offset weakness.