Afternoon report 09/03/2026 17:32

The Match Out: ~25% spike in Oil this morning rattles markets

Morning report 09/03/2026 09:48

Macro Monday: Gulf War propels oil towards $US100, sending investors scurrying for cover

One week in, and the Iran war has already severely disrupted global energy markets, with threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively choking oil exports from the Persian Gulf and pushing crude prices to their highest levels in more than two years. As producers cut output and energy prices surge, the conflict is raising global inflation risks and intensifying concerns about energy security, particularly in Europe. The local market initially shrugged off last weekend’s US–Israel strikes on Iran, with the ASX200 closing at an all-time high on Monday. However, that early optimism quickly faded as investors began to acknowledge the conflict could last far longer than first imagined:

Weekend report 07/03/2026 09:54

Weekend Q&A: The US-Iran War takes its toll on global markets

Afternoon report 06/03/2026 16:36

The Match Out: A fitting end to a tough week for markets

Friday delivered more of the same, with the ASX unable to hold Thursday's recovery as a fresh wave of selling hit the materials sector. The culprit this time wasn't just the Middle East - China's state-backed iron ore buyer CMRG effectively banned traders from purchasing new BHP cargoes, sending the Big Australian down sharply and dragging the broader resources complex with it. It was a messy session to end a soft week, though there were some genuine bright spots. Tech continued its strong bounce and MFG added further gains as the Lowy Family's cornerstone stake gave the Barrenjoey merger story more legs.

Morning report 06/03/2026 09:20

ETF Friday: Reviewing Four Asian ETFs as volatility skyrockets across the region

The ASX 200 limped to a +0.1% gain on Thursday, although some heavyweight names traded ex-dividend, including Woodside (WDS), QBE Insurance (QBE), RIO Tinto (RIO), South32 (S32), and BHP Group (BHP, taking roughly 30-points off the index. It was another very polarised affair on the stock/sector front, with plenty of reversion unfolding since Monday's panic sell-off - we’ve seen profit taking in the high-flying miners while bargain hunters have emerged in the battered tech space. Despite the uptick, the ASX200 is still down 2.8% from Monday's recent record high and oil prices have continued higher after Iran denied rumours its officials had sought de-escalation via diplomatic backchannels and on reports of fresh Iranian air strikes on Israel.

Afternoon report 05/03/2026 17:26

The Match Out: Tech feels some love as the ASX bounces back

The ASX bounced back from Wednesday's shellacking, with bargain hunters returning early as strong US economic data overnight kept rate cut hopes alive and reports - later denied - that Iran had approached the US to resolve the conflict briefly lifted sentiment. The index traded as high as 8964 this morning before fading into the close, with BHP and Woodside both trading ex-dividend adding some mechanical drag. All things considered, a solid recovery given the noise still swirling around the Middle East - the bears didn't get the follow-through they were looking for today.

Morning report 05/03/2026 09:40

What Matters Today: Are the “short sellers” right to focus on consumer stocks?

Hedge funds have shifted their short positions away from ASX resource names that benefited from the recent commodities boom, targeting consumer-facing stocks such as Treasury Wine Estates, Domino’s Pizza and Guzman y Gomez amid concerns around weakening household spending. Just six months ago, five of the six most shorted stocks on the ASX were resource plays, including uranium names Boss Energy and Paladin Energy, alongside lithium producers Pilbara Minerals, Liontown Resources and Mineral Resources. Today, traders have pivoted, with Domino’s Pizza now the most heavily shorted stock on the ASX, while Treasury Wine Estates and Guzman y Gomez also feature among the top five most shorted names.

Afternoon report 04/03/2026 16:55

The Match Out: ASX knocked ~2% as resources & banks weigh

The ASX was sharply lower today with the two heavy weight sectors in Resources & Banks copping most selling which created a big impact on the index. BHP alone took ~30 pts from the ASX 200 and the big 4 banks accounted for another ~40pts. It wasn’t all bad news though, Energy did okay and some tech names had a better session as it looks like some selling pressure is drying up, perhaps a rotation from resources back into tech on global growth fears…

Morning report 04/03/2026 09:36

Portfolio Positioning: Rounding off report season as market volatility surges on oil price uncertainty

The ASX200 haemorrhaged on Tuesday, closing down 123-points or 1.3%, as weak US futures, and a cautious Michelle Bullock broke the market's stubborn resistance - the local 3-year yield surged 0.15% during our day session following the RBA chiefs’ hawkish comments. We discussed the drop in bonds (yields higher) yesterday afternoon - Here. The move in bonds weighed on rate-sensitive stocks/sector, with the consumer discretionary, real estate and tech sectors all underperforming the main board, and closing down by more than 2% - more of the same is likely this morning after bonds fell further overnight, although they did bounce into the close. However, losses were broad-based on Tuesday, with almost 75% of the market closing down on the day.

Afternoon report 03/03/2026 17:38

The Match Out: ASX falls as RBA hints of March rate hike, bond yields surge

The ASX was hit today, unwinding yesterday’s strong recovery from the lows, with commentary from RBA Chair Michelle Bullock at an AFR event dovetailing into higher oil prices driving a sharp increase in local bond yields on firming rate hike expectations at the next meeting.