The $US is not surprisingly moving in tandem with bond yields, if/when these yields follow the MM roadmap lower the likelihood is that the $US will follow suit which should prove very supportive of commodities and in particular precious metals.
- In line with our view on US bonds we’re looking for another 10% on the downside by the $US but we caution a short-term bounce towards 105 would not surprise.
MM is bearish toward the $US while it holds under 102.
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The BOJ showed its hand last week with their period of ultraloose policy set to end, we continue to believe the USDJPY will break its 2023 lows in the coming quarters but another test of 150 cannot be ruled out depending on the path navigated by the Fed.
- We like the technical & fundamental outlook for the Yen (USDJPY lower) but the risk/reward still feels like a coin toss at present.
MM is bearish toward the USDJPY medium/long term
