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More of a comment than a question from subscriber John.

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More of a comment than a question from subscriber John.

If you wish to go down the path of seeking professional help, the first question I would ask of an adviser is not what to be buying, but what is the strategy when it comes to selling. These are the top 3 questions you need to ask:

  1. How much are you prepared to let a stock fall until you sell? Go back to my previous point on how difficult it is to recover from a big loss and decide if you are OK with that.
  2. At what point do you decide to cut a losing position? If the answer is “we don’t sell at a loss”, then run for the hills. Their portfolios must resemble a graveyard of dead businesses. I have seen many of these portfolios. The good ones are sold early and the losers are kept. Even if you get two out of three correct, then for every three stocks you buy, you add one more loser to the list. Eventually, the portfolio is full of losing stocks and you end up with no capital left to buy into new opportunities.
  3. When do you sell at a profit? Look out for those that take profits at arbitrary numbers, such as 10%, and then compare this to when they take a loss. You can then work out if they are likely to make you money over time. That is, if they are happy to hold steep losses but take profits at smaller amounts, then the maths never adds up.
John

Answer

Hi John,

I would argue that this is indeed the key to successful investing, selling is harder than buying and when I go back and look at the last 2-years returns for MM much as they’re good they would be great if we hadn’t been caught holding our worst 1, or 2 positions. Importantly we do indeed go back regularly and assess all of our transactions both winners & losers to see what we could do better, by definition this is “work in progress” (WIP).

We believe the initial question that must be asked before any purchase is the reason for the trade i.e. why did we buy BHP, what are our targets, what reasons will see us exit etc, obviously these can be fluid as a company evolves but once the “reason” has gone the position should be exited.

The hardest part of this equation is when adverse news hits a stock, an inevitable part of investing, and a stock “gaps” down say 10 or 20%, in the past we have been guilty for giving some of these too much room, in hindsight if we aren’t prepared to average we should exit and move on i.e. your best loss is your first loss.

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