Skip to Content

Month: November 2016

Donald Trump now has his nose ahead of Hillary Clinton according to the latest polls and the market doesn’t like it – this prompted selling of US stocks, buying of Gold and selling of the $US overnight. Since the FBI reignited their investigation into Clinton’s leaked emails, Trump has roared back into contention and clearly that’s a concern for markets.

Most focus will be on the Melbourne Cup today (“The race that stops the nation”) at 3pm only 30 minutes after the RBA announces their decision on interest rates at 230pm. For the record we believe interest rates will remain unchanged and our “punt” for the Cup is “Big Orange”! We actually believe rates are likely to remain on hold for the next 6-months while the local economy shows its hand and the RBA get to see how aggressively the US will recommence with its rate hiking cycle.

Last year’s Cup saw the first female Jockey win on the back of 100-1 ‘roughy’ Prince of Penzance blowing all modeling, form, statistics and ‘good oil’ out of the water. Does a ‘quant model’ actually help or are we better off picking bycolor or name or simply pulling a name at random in the office sweep?

Back to top